Red Sox Arbitration Projections: Big Jarren Duran Decision Looms
Duran was an All-Star in 2024
The clock is ticking for Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. No less than nine players are eligible for arbitration this year, with none bigger than Jarren Duran.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Duran will get $8.4 million in arbitration. However the Red Sox can avoid arbitration with the 29-year-old outfielder if they exercise the club’s $8 million option for the 2026 season.
Duran and the Red Sox avoided arbitration before the 2025 season by agreeing to a one-year, $3.75 million deal which included the club option for 2026. He had been asking for $4 million and the club countered at $3.5 million. So Duran and the Red Sox essentially split the difference.
But based on all available data, Durran regressed in 2025. Look at the comparison in his numbers from the last two seasons:
- 2024: .285 average, 21 home runs, 75 RBIs, 48 doubles, 14 triples, 191 hits, .834 OPS, 34 stolen bases, 8.7 WAR
- 2025: .256 average, 16 home runs, 84 RBIs, 41 doubles, 13 triples, 159 hits, .774 OPS, 24 stolen bases, 4.6 WAR
Will the Red Sox pick up the $8 million option or take their chances in arbitration? Keep in mind, Duran remains under team control through the 2028 season, so Breslow could be dancing this dance for the next three years.
And what about the rest of the arbitration eligible Red Sox players? Here are their projected numbers, along with service years:
- Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5M
- Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95M
- Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75M
- Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8M
- Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6M
- Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7M
- Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
- Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1M
So when does the fun start?
“The deadline to offer salary arbitration-eligible and pre-eligible players has not yet been set, but usually, it occurs in the last 10 days of November,” Masslive.com’s Sean McAdam reports.
If the two sides cannot agree to a contract, the player and the team exchange salary numbers in January. If they still cannot reach an agreement, the salary arbitration hearings are held in February.
