Red Sox Free Agency Rumors: Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber Will ‘Defy The Odds’

How much is too much for the Boston Red Sox to spend on a 32-year-old designated hitter with limited glove skills?

That’s what chief baseball officer Craig Breslow must decide when it comes to chasing Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber.

Yes, the three-time All-Star led the National League with a career-high 56 home runs this season.

And yes, the runner-up for NL MVP in 2025 has hit at least 38 home runs in each of the last four seasons.

But at what point will his next contract be paying for past performance rather than future production?

MLB.com’s Travis Sawchik took a deep drive on Schwarber and concluded the uber-DH should continue to “defy the odds.” Here’s why.

Exit Velocity

“Exit velocity is not supposed to age well. In fact, the vast majority of underlying power traits peak by a player’s mid-20s,” Sawchik noted.

“Schwarber posted a career-best 94.3 mph average exit velocity in 2025 and the second-best max velocity of his career at 117.2 mph,” Sawchik added.

Bat Speed

“An underlying component of exit velocity, of power, is bat speed,” Sawchik wrote. “In the three years of tracking data to date, Schwarber ranks in the 98th or 99th percentile in average bat speed: 77.1 mph in 2023, 77.5 mph in 2024, and 77.3 mph this past season. This is not how power is supposed to age.”

“Even if he’s losing half a [mph] every year, he’d still be towards the top of the league and likely be productive,” an analyst said to Sawchik.

Elite Eye

“(Schwarber has) always possessed an elite eye, but he took fewer called strikes in 2025 and struck out at a lower rate (27.2%) than his career average (28.4%),” Sawchik wrote. “While he’ll never win a batting title, he’s posted back-to-back seasons of .240-plus averages after flirting with the Mendoza Line in 2023.”

“The demand for Schwarber is high, which is no surprise considering he won’t get more than a five-year deal because of his age and positional inflexibility as a full-time designated hitter,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported.

Among the teams interested in the slugger, according to Passan, are the Phillies, Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers.

Contract Projections

So how much will the lefty bat cost?

“The contract offers are likely to bump Schwarber’s average annual value to more than $30 million a year, and the winning team won’t be getting a one-dimensional player. Schwarber has among the best plate discipline in the game, and beyond that, he has evolved tremendously,” Passan added.

MLB Trade Rumors projected Schwarber will return to Philadelphia on a five-year, $135 million contract.

In September, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale predicted Schwarber “should command a four-year deal in excess of $120 million.”

In terms of numbers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was in the same ballpark as Nightengale.

“Among those we spoke to, the consensus is that Schwarber should land a deal of four or five years for at least $30 million per season,” Feinsand reported.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel polled 20 scouts, executives and agents to get a sense of Schwarber’s value in free agency.

“The average of all 20 projections is 4.3 years, $131.8 million, for a $30.7 million average annual value (AAV),” McDaniel reported. “The median projection of those deals is $119 million.”

Schwarber, who helped the Chicago Cubs win the 2016 World Series, spent part of the 2021 season in Boston as a midseason acquisition and helped the Red Sox reach the American League Championship Series.