Can Patriots Clinch Playoff Berth Or AFC East During Bye Week?

The New England Patriots will have a chance to clinch their first AFC East title since 2019 when they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. But could they be locked into a playoff spot before the game even starts?

The short answer: no.

There is nothing that can happen this weekend that will enable the Patriots to clinch a playoff berth during their bye week. That feels impossible for a first-place 11-2 team in a seven-team playoff field, but it’s the truth.

The details involve remaining schedules and various tiebreaker scenarios. However, we’re going to try to make this as straightforward as possible.

With four games left on their schedule, the Patriots can’t finish with more than six losses. As such, for them to clinch a playoff berth this week, they would need one of two things to happen: Nine of the 16 AFC teams emerge from Week 14 with at least seven losses, or all six-loss teams are guaranteed to have worse head-to-head records and/or in-conference records, which are the first- and second-ranking conference-standings tiebreakers, respectively.

Neither of those scenarios can happen in Week 14. Before we dig into the minutia, let’s look at the current AFC standings.

(Note: Division leaders automatically occupy the top four seeds, and only the top seed gets a first-round bye.)

IN PLAYOFFS
1. New England Patriots (11-2)
2. Denver Broncos (10-2)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)
OUT OF PLAYOFFS
8. Houston Texans (7-5)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
11. Miami Dolphins (7-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
13. New York Jets (3-9)
14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-11)

As you can see, six teams already have at least seven losses, meaning they can’t make the playoffs over the Patriots in a world in which New England loses out to finish 11-6. But three non-playoff teams — the Texans, Steelers and Chiefs — still hypothetically could finish with six losses, thus introducing tiebreakers, with the Texans still capable of finishing 12-5.

The Steelers will visit the Ravens on Sunday, whereas the Texans will visit the Chiefs

Moreover, the Patriots would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against Pittsburgh, and nothing can happen this week that would guarantee them a better in-conference record than the Texans or Chiefs.

Here are the in-conference records for all four teams entering Week 14:

Patriots: 6-2
Texans: 6-2
Steelers: 5-3
Chiefs: 3-4

All NFL teams play 12 games against their respective conferences; so, New England still could finish with a 6-6 record against AFC opponents. Regardless of outcomes this week, Houston and Kansas City would remain capable of finishing with five or fewer conference losses.

Now, the Patriots could forget about the Steelers and Chiefs if both lose on Sunday, but they still would have to think about Houston. And if the Chiefs win, they and the Texans both would have six losses.

Again, none of this will matter if New England beats Buffalo in Week 15. Hats and T-shirts would be passed around the Patriots locker room, and the focus would turn toward clinching the first-round bye.

But what if the Patriots lose to the Bills? Well, it depends on what happens this Sunday when the Bills host the Bengals.

If Buffalo loses to Cincinnati and then beats New England, the Patriots still would be able to clinch the AFC East in Week 16 with a win over the Ravens and a Bills loss to the Browns. If Buffalo beats Cincinnati and then beats New England, the Patriots wouldn’t be able to clinch the AFC East until Week 17 at the earliest.

As for clinching a playoff berth after a loss to Buffalo, the math would be the same: The Patriots would need nine of 16 AFC teams to emerge from Week 15 with at least seven losses, or all or all six-loss teams would need to be guaranteed worse head-to-head and in-conference records.

Got all that? Good!

By the way, if you want to check our math, or give yourself a popsicle headache, you should dive into the ESPN NFL Playoff Machine.