Stafford is still the betting favorite
Several ESPN staffers disagree with the oddsmakers’ assessment of the 2025 NFL MVP race.
Matthew Stafford surpassed Drake Maye as the betting favorite to win MVP, but the second-year quarterback has a strong case to take home the honor before steering the New England Patriots into Super Bowl LX. Although an ESPN panel unanimously picked the Seattle Seahawks to defeat the Patriots, some of the same personalities backed Maye over Stafford.
Eight of 11 writers and analysts said Maye should win MVP in an ESPN poll shared on Tuesday. Jeremy Fowler, Dan Orlovsky and Lindsey Thiry were the three holdovers who chose Stafford.
Mike Reiss didn’t cast a vote, but the Patriots reporter laid out the case for Maye.
“Maye’s statistics were elite in the regular season,” Reiss wrote. “He led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), QBR (77.1) and yards per attempt (8.9). He also finished with 450 rushing yards with four scores on the ground.”
Analytics writer Seth Walder claimed the “numbers solidly back Maye for MVP” when explaining his vote. He noted that QBR adjusts for quality of opponent, so Maye’s league-high mark counters any critics downplaying his breakout year because of New England’s schedule.
Furthermore, Walder identified advantages Stafford had over Maye that make the younger quarterback’s success all the more impressive.
“In comparing Maye and Stafford, which one had the elite pair of receivers?” Walder asked. “Which one had better pass protection? Which one had the better running game to support them? And with all due respect to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, which one had coach Sean McVay designing their offense?
“The answer to all four of those questions is Stafford. And despite Stafford having far more support all around him and the most touchdowns in the league, Maye still delivered more efficient production.”