Red Sox Shockingly Projected To Finish Ahead Of Top AL Rival

Spring training has begun and the offseason is officially over, which means MLB fans are swimming in 2026 projections and predictions now that rosters are mostly complete.

For the Boston Red Sox, their main goal during the regular season will be keeping up with the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, both of whom finished four games ahead of them in the AL East standings.

The Blue Jays took the division, the American League and nearly the World Series, falling just short in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not surprisingly, they’re considered a favorite to repeat, especially after adding Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto and Tyler Rogers this winter.

Catching them won’t be easy, but the Red Sox might be able to do it.

According to FanGraphs’ Depth Charts model, Boston is surprisingly projected to have a better record than Toronto this year. The Red Sox are projected to go 86-76, while the Blue Jays are projected to go 85-77 — same as the Baltimore Orioles.

However, neither is projected to win the AL East. That would be the Yankees, who are projected for the best record in the American League at 87-75, tied with the Seattle Mariners.

While projections don’t mean much once the games actually start, it’s still encouraging for Boston that its roster is considered on par with New York and Toronto in terms of talent. After improving their pitching and defense this offseason, the Red Sox appear poised to challenge for their first division crown since 2018.