Will Patriots Decline In 2026? Colin Cowherd Explains Why

The New England Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl appearance and their best season since Tom Brady left. However, few expect them to replicate it in 2026.

That includes Colin Cowherd, who named the Patriots as one of the five teams he expects to decline next season on Tuesday’s episode of “The Herd.”

“14-3 is not happening. AFC is gonna be much better. The Chiefs will be better. The Chargers will be better. Cincinnati. Baltimore. Jacksonville is only getting better in Liam Coen’s second year. They’re not going 14-3,” Cowherd said. “My guess, they’re closer to 10, 11 wins…They gotta solve their offensive line.”

Cowherd’s right that last season was definitely a down year for the AFC given the injuries to Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and others. If they’re healthy and return to form next season, the AFC will be much tougher.

Furthermore, New England didn’t look great against good competition in the postseason, especially against the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

“Let’s be honest. If Bo Nix plays, they probably don’t make the Super Bowl. They were completely overwhelmed by Seattle. It wasn’t necessarily close,” Cowherd added. “I love Vrabel. Drake Maye’s good. But you start looking at the AFC, there’s just too many good quarterbacks. There’s too many good coaches, too many good coordinators. They take a step back.”

Cowherd’s right that the Patriots appear poised for regression next season, as their schedule will be considerably harder after being the easiest in recent NFL history this year.

The question is, how big will that dropoff be? If they decline by a few wins, they’re still a playoff team. If it’s more than that, however, they may struggle to get back to the postseason.

It also depends what New England does this offseason, but next season will be more challenging no matter what moves the front office makes.