No. 1 Overall?! Patriots Fans Will Appreciate This 2025 NFL Draft Model

So you’re saying there’s a chance? Yes, absolutely.

The New England Patriots are very much alive in the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Patriots the best chance to land the top pick. The analytics model projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. The Patriots’ average draft position (2.9) is the best of any NFL team.

The New York Giants (3.1), Carolina Panthers (4.2) , Las Vegas Raiders (4.5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (5.0) round out the top five, per FPI. New York, however, does have the best chance at the standalone No. 1 pick (31.1%), ahead of New England (27.5%).

New England has a difficult post-bye schedule with the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills (twice) and Los Angeles Chargers on the docket.

Jacksonville, which currently owns the No. 1 pick, could shift with the Tennessee Titans (twice), New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts representing their remaining opponents.