The Abuse of Halladay: A Cautionary Statistic

With seemingly every team in the majors hoping for the chance to trade for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, one particular statistic may be getting overlooked.

While Halladay’s 10-3 record and 2.85 ERA are among the best in baseball, the 32-year-old is also atop a list that might not be so good.

According to RotoAuthority.com, Halladay leads the major leagues in “pitcher abuse points” per start. The stat, which was created by Baseball Prospectus in the late 1990s, accounts for more than just pitch counts and innings pitched.

From Baseball Prospectus:

“These points are cumulative: a 115-pitch outing gets you 20 PAP’s – 1 for each pitch from 101-110 (10 total), and 2 for each pitch from 111-115 (10 total). A 120-pitch outing is worth 30 PAP’s, while a 140-pitch outing is worth 100 PAP’s – more than 3 times as much. This seems fair; a pitcher doesn’t get tired all at once, but fatigue sets on gradually, and with each pitch the danger of continuing to pitch grows.”

In 17 starts this year, Halladay has surpassed the 100-pitch mark 11 times, the 110-pitch mark six times and the 130-pitch mark once.

Trailing Halladay on the list is Justin Verlander, Gil Meche, Kevin Millwood and Edwin Jackson. Yankee ace CC Sabathia is listed eighth, while Josh Beckett ranks at No. 15.

In generating the statistic, it was noted that it’s far from scientific. While it could serve as an indicator of which pitchers will break down or decline in the second half of the season, it cannot take into account how susceptible each pitcher is to injury.

Regardless, words like “ace” and “Cy Young” will be drawing teams to Halladay, but words like “abused” could be scaring them away.

* Photo courtesy of STATS.