Patriots Open As Touchdown Favorites Over Colts In AFC Championship Game

The New England Patriots will host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game, with Tom Brady and company installed as a touchdown favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The total is set at 53.5 points. The moneyline has the Patriots as -290 favorites, while the Colts are +245 underdogs.

This game is a rematch of New England’s Week 11 victory at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Patriots were a field-goal underdog but easily covered in a 42-20 victory. The score went OVER the 58.5-point total. New England is 5-2 straight up and against the spread in its last seven games against Indianapolis, but is only 2-4 ATS in its last six home games against the Colts.

New England — still trailing the Seattle Seahawks on the updated odds to win the Super Bowl — opens as a touchdown favorite for the second straight week. They won but failed to cover in a 35-31 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. This game marks the seventh time this season and 14th time in the last two seasons New England has been a touchdown favorite. They are 13-0 SU but 5-8 ATS as at least a touchdown favorite over the last two seasons.

This marks the third time this season and seventh time the last two seasons Indianapolis has been an underdog of at least a touchdown. The Colts are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in such games over the last two seasons.

The total has gone UNDER in five of the Patriots’ last seven games, and in five straight Colts games. However, it has gone OVER in the last five games between these two teams, and in five of the last six New England has hosted. In the 13 games over the last two seasons New England has been favored by at least a touchdown, the total has gone OVER seven times. The OddsShark Computer predicts it will go OVER again in a push of the spread, with the Patriots winning 37-30.

The only notable injury early in the week is New England cornerback Brandon Browner, who suffered a knee injury in the third quarter against Baltimore and did not return. Browner starts opposite Darrelle Revis. Logan Ryan is expected to replace him if he can’t go on Sunday.

Thumbnail photo via Mark L. Baer/USA TODAY Sports Images