NFL Odds: Here Are Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 7

Hopefully you followed our advice in this very space last week.

Sure, we missed on the Detroit Lions when giving you three favorites to avoid betting last week. But we nailed it with our other two selections, as both the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams lost outright in their respective games.

Here’s to more success this week. These are our three betting consensus favorites to avoid in Week 7.

(-4.5) Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (Thursday night)
So, the Giants stink. But here’s the thing: So do the Eagles. The Eagles rank 31st in overall DVOA, 28th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA. They’re 23rd in yards per play differential. Granted, the Giants aren’t much better in many of those categories and are actually worse in most. But Philly is also dealing with a host of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Tackle Lane Johnson has a nagging injury and is questionable, while Zach Ertz and Miles Sander will miss the game. Again, the Giants are really bad, but it’s hard to lay points with Philly even if it is at home on a Thursday night.

Week 7 NFL Picks, Odds: Steelers-Titans, Seahawks-Cardinals, 49ers-Patriots | The Spread, Ep. 8

Oct 20, 2020

(-3.5) Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
If you’ve bet on the Seahawks this year, you might need to see your doctor — not because it’s a bad idea necessarily. Rather, Seattle has been a sweat. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS, but all of their games save for a Week 1 win in Atlanta have been by one score or less. So there’s that. But this also is a tough matchup, as Arizona looks likes one of the most improved teams in the NFL. The Cardinals’ offense with Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins speaks for itself, but don’t sleep on the defense. Arizona’s third-down defense is ranked seventh in the NFL (Seattle’s third-down offense is 28th), and the Cardinals also have the No. 2 red-zone defense. Much of the Seahawks’ offensive success stems from the big play, and Arizona ranks No. 11 in explosive pass plays allowed. Should be a good game.

(-3.5) Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
We promise we’re not overreacting to one week, although Green Bay looked really bad last week in Tampa Bay. This, however, is matchup-based, especially with elite left tackle David Bakhtiari going down with a chest injury. His status is up in the air this week, which must delight the likes of J.J. Watt and the Texans’ front. Aaron Rodgers is completing just 33.3 percent of his passes under pressure and has a 60.2 passer rating in those 49 dropbacks. Even if the Packers are able to run wild on the Houston defense (like just about everyone else this season), the Green Bay defense might have its own problems stopping Deshaun Watson. Of course, the Packers could get right and win this going away, but we’re not ready to put down a bet on it.