NFL Week 4 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Looks To Profit Off Carson Wentz’s Struggles

There’s a reason many people believe parlays are suckers’ bets, folks.

We’re three weeks into the 2020 NFL season, and we’re still looking for our first cashed ticket in the weekly best-bet parlay. (Perhaps we should change the name at this rate.)

For now, though, we’re putting an emphasis on process over product and hope we’re close. It just takes one good week to get us back on track, and the hope is that happens right now in Week 4.

Here’s this week’s best-bet parlay.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins OVER 54
Let’s start with taking the over in a game featuring two defensive-minded head coaches, shall we? The over has cashed in each of Seattle’s three games this season, and no team has had any answers for Russell Wilson thus far. The Seahawks could get us close to the number by themselves, especially against a Dolphins defense that might be the NFL’s worst. Here’s the thing, though: Seattle’s defense isn’t much better. The Seahawks rank 23rd in defensive DVOA, while the Dolphins have scored 59 points over their last two games.

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 points
The Giants are having a fun year, huh? They’ve played three games and scored a grand total of 38 points. It’s not completely a reflection of their offensive ineptitude, though. New York has played Pittsburgh, Chicago and San Francisco through three weeks — teams that rank second, sixth and seventh, respectively, in defensive DVOA. It should get a little easier this week against the Rams. The problem, though, is LA’s revitalized offense will present the Giants’ defense with the toughest test it’s faced all season. Maybe the New York offense wakes up a little bit, and the two teams put up some points in SoCal.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 points
The Eagles officially have a Carson Wentz problem. The Philly QB has been atrocious through three games, completing fewer than 60% of his passes while throwing a league-leading six interceptions for a 35.5 QBR topped by every NFL quarterback other than Dwayne Haskins. Life doesn’t get any easier this week in primetime against a 49ers defense that, as mentioned, has been very good. On the other side of the coin, Jimmy Garoppolo looks unlikely to play for San Fran, as that offense has been banged up early this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars to WIN OUTRIGHT over Cincinnati Bengals (+140)
If the Bengals blow out the Jags, I’m gonna look like an idiot, as I’ve been banging the Jacksonville drum across NESN.com’s NFL betting content this week. It just feels like a bad matchup for Cincinnati, though, especially with an offense that hasn’t been able to get anything in terms of big plays. The Bengals have just six explosive plays this season, per Sharp Football Stats. Those are unlikely to come against a Jaguars defense that is 11th and third when it comes to stopping explosive plays on the ground and through the air. The Jags’ rushing attack has been good, averaging a sixth-best 4.9 yards per carry, and Jacksonville proved a year ago it could run on Cincinnati, gaining 216 rushing yards in a 27-17 win over the Bengals. More of the same this week.

Payout: $100 to win $1,570
Season: 0-3 (down $300)