NFL Week 9 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Needs Bills-Seahawks Shootout In Buffalo

So much for building on momentum.

It didn’t take long for the best-bet parlay to blow up in our faces in Week 8, as the Miami Dolphins’ beatdown of the Los Angeles Rams really took the wind out of our sails and kept us from two straight winning weeks.

No worries, we’re back at it this week and we love the board.

Here’s the best-bet parlay for Week 9.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 50.5 points
Is it easy to bet the over with someone named Jake Luton making his first career start at quarterback for the Jaguars? No. Is it smart? Uh, hopefully? This, however, is more of a fade on the two defenses in this game more than anything else. Jacksonville’s defense ranks last in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric. Houston ranks 28th. The Jags have allowed at least 30 points in each of their last six games, while the over has hit in Houston’s last four road games. Both teams are rested and coming off their byes, and the Texans didn’t sell off any offensive pieces at the trade deadline. These teams are two of the faster teams when it comes to pace of actual plays run.

Carolina Panthers (+10.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Is this the week Christian McCaffrey finally returns? It sounds like it’s possible but not definite. Regardless, the Panthers could give KC a game for a few reasons. The first is the Carolina run game should be able to move the ball against a Chiefs run defense that ranks 28th by DVOA. Take out a Week 7 showing vs. New Orleans, and the Panthers are averaging nearly 140 rushing yards per games since Week 4. You also have to wonder whether this is a slight trap game for the Chiefs, who are a) much better than Carolina and b) going on their bye week after this game.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills OVER 55 points
Traditionally, these two teams have been defensive-minded, run-heavy outfits. Not so much this season. Both offenses live on chunk plays, and each defense has major flaws. In fact, Seattle and Buffalo are both in the top 11 for both big plays per game and big plays allowed per game. In each of the Seahawks’ eight games this season, at least 53 points have been scored between the two teams (with this week’s total of 54 being surpassed six times), while the Bills have played four games with 53 points or more scored. Here’s one more thing: The weather in Buffalo on Sunday is forecasted to be unseasonably warm and quiet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to WIN OUTRIGHT (-218) over New Orleans Saints
The Bucs are out for revenge after a Week 1 loss in the Big Easy. The matchup certainly sets up well, too. Tampa Bay’s stout defense (second in net yards allowed per play) will be a tough test for a banged-up offense that saw Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara on the injury report this week.

Payout: $100 to win $914
Season: 1-7 (down $80)