NFL Odds: Here Are Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 13

There’s unprecedented, and then there’s Week 12 in the NFL.

Between Thanksgiving and the lingering COVID-19 situation, it was a wild week, capped by a Wednesday afternoon/night game in Pittsburgh with the Steelers facing a severely shorthanded Ravens team.

Here’s hoping Week 13 is a little smoother.

Assuming that is the case, here are three betting favorites you might want to avoid picking this week.

(-9.5) Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
These are two teams going in completely different directions, and our last image of the Packers was them steamrolling the Bears while the Eagles looked borderline inept against Seattle. Oddly enough, though, this looks like a better matchup for Philly for one big reason: Miles Sanders and the Eagles should be able to run the ball which could potentially work to neutralize the Packers’ high-powered offense. You’d think Green Bay would do all it can to take away that ground attack, but it’s just something Mike Pettine’s defense has failed to do all season. The Packers rank 22nd in expected points added allowed against the run. And according to ESPN, the Packers rank 20th in team run stop win rate, while the Eagles’ offensive line ranks fourth in run block win rate. The Packers should win, but don’t be surprised if this game looks a lot like Week 4 last year when the Eagles knocked off the 3-0 Patriots at Lambeau Field, thanks in large part to 176 yards on the ground.

(-2.5) Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (in Arizona)
You’re probably best to just stay away from this one in general. The 49ers essentially have been kicked out of Santa Clara county for COVID reasons and will practice and play their games in Arizona, essentially making them football gypsies. That being said, this might be a tough matchup for Buffalo. Robert Saleh continues to work miracles with the 49ers’ defense, and his efforts certainly were helped by the return of Richard Sherman last week. The Rams threw at Sherman twice. One of those passes went for 9 yards. The other was an interception. Pair him with Jimmie Ward (45.8 passer rating against last week), and the recipe is there to take away the Buffalo passing game. The Niners have also forced a ton of turnovers recently — 13 in their last five games — while the Bills have coughed it up five times in their last two. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo’s defense is not very good (22nd in EPA allowed), which should have Kyle Shanahan licking his chops, especially with Deebo Samuel back in the mix.

(-9.5) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Football Team
Is the Football Team actually good? We’ll certainly have a better idea Monday night. Washington has won three of its last five, and the two losses were a combined six points. The offense has come alive with Alex Smith at quarterback, averaging 382 yards per game. Since Week 9, the Football Team is seventh in the NFL in explosive play rate and sixth in early-down success rate. They actually lead the league in early-down success rate, and if they’re smart, they’ll come out chucking in Pittsburgh on Monday against a defense that is very strong against the run. Speaking of the Steelers, they’ll be in a weird spot, coming off a Wednesday night rivalry game against Baltimore, so they’ll be on a short week facing a Washington team that will basically be coming off a bye after Thanksgiving. Throw in a looming Week 14 conference matchup against Buffalo, this feels like a spot where Pittsburgh might get tripped up.