NFL Odds: Here Are Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 15

Parts of the country, especially the Northeast, will get hit with a blast of winter weather this weekend.

Unfortunately, it appears said weather — which could drop more than a foot of snow on New England — will be gone by the time Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off. That means we have to wait at least another week before we get some snowglobe football.

The good news? We’ve got the return of Saturday NFL action this weekend. The better news? We’re back with our three betting favorites you might want to avoid when making your bets and filling out your contest or pool picks.

(All lines are provided by consensus data.)

(-6.5) Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Denver’s offense is a dumpster fire. The Broncos rank at or near the bottom of the league in every offensive stat — traditional or advanced. However, Vic Fangio’s defense is unsurprisingly stout, setting up a fascinating chess match with Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll this week. Daboll and Bills quarterback Josh Allen have found their groove recently. The Broncos, though, have a top-10 pass defense and could slow down the Buffalo train. The Bills don’t really have the running attack to expose an average-at-best Denver run defense, either. This is a bit of a soft spot in Buffalo’s schedule, too, after a pair of impressive primetime wins and ahead of a couple divisional games to end the regular season. Despite questions about Denver’s offense, there’s probably enough here to talk you out of laying the points with Buffalo on Saturday afternoon.

(-3) Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago’s offense, the butt of jokes for years with Mitch Trubisky under center, has been much improved since the 2017 No. 2 pick returned to action. The Bears are eighth in EPA per play and are averaging 30 points per game since Trubisky took over for Nick Foles. That could mean trouble for a Minnesota team that struggled to beat the Bears in Week 10 when Foles and Tyler Bray combined to complete 16 of 31 passes for just 124 yards. We saw two huge issues for the Vikings last week in Tampa Bay, too. The first was an inability to protect Kirk Cousins, who was hit 12 times, including six sacks. While Chicago’s pass rush hasn’t been as fierce in 2020, any sort of pass-protection issues are a red flag when Khalil Mack comes to town. Secondly, despite Mike Zimmer’s public support (after some deserved criticism), there’s no way the Vikings (or bettors) should be able to trust kicker Dan Bailey right now. Minnesota would have at least covered and maybe even won last week had Bailey not missed three field goals and an extra point. Even Minnesota’s running game tends to go cold against the Bears, with Dalvin Cook averaging just 2.8 yards per carry in his career against Chicago.

(-7) Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 341 yards and also ran for 38 more yards and a touchdown when these two teams played last. Houston was two yards away from punching in the go-ahead touchdown at the Indianapolis 2-yard line when a botched snap cost the Texans. That game was two weeks ago. Only the Lions are allowing more yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks than the Colts, and we already saw even a shorthanded Texans offense — which likely will have Brandin Cooks back after missing last week — can take advantage. It’s worth noting, too, Indy ran for “only” 109 yards against a Texans defense that’s allowed at least 160 rushing yards in seven games and at least 230 yards (!) in three contests. Just feels like a couple points too many, all things considered.