Waste Management Open Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, DFS For TPC Scottsdale

The best golfers in the world are headed to the desert — on both sides of the world — this week.

Seven of the world’s top 20 players will head oversees to take place in the Saudi International, where the allure of a massive payday was far too tempting for a lot of really good players to say no.

Stateside, an equally strong field moves down the West Coast and into Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Typically one of the best tournaments on the early-season schedule, this year’s iteration will — like many other tournaments — look a little different. Known for its raucous crowds, the affectionately nicknamed “Wasted Management” will have limited crowds amid the ongoing pandemic.

Regardless, it should be a solid tournament with a good field. Here’s a full betting preview for this weekend’s PGA Tour tournament in Phoenix.

DEFENDING CHAMPION: Webb Simpson (17-under; beat Tony Finau in playoff)

THE COURSE — TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,261 yards

Conversations about TPC Scottsdale typically start with the par-3 16th hole, home of the rowdiest scene in golf. It will look and sound much different this year, though, with overall attendance being capped at 5,000 each day. In the past, 20,000 fans congregated in the grandstands and bleachers surrounding the 16th where all hell tends to break loose.

The 16th is just part of a wild four-hole finishing stretch that includes the par-5 15th, a driveable par-4 17th and an 18th hole that is the third-most difficult test on the course.

THE FAVORITES
Jon Rahm +650
Justin Thomas +900
Rory McIlroy +1100
Xander Schauffele +1100
Webb Simpson +1700
Daniel Berger +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Harris English +2800
Sungjae Im +3300

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

— Rahm is no stranger to the area, having played his college golf at Arizona State. The world No. 2 has finished no worse than 15th here in each of his five stops, including a ninth-place finish a year ago.

— Simpson winning a year ago was no surprise. He has five top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2016.

— Somewhat surprisingly, McIlroy is making his Phoenix debut this week.

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BEST BETS
Before diving into some picks, what are we looking for in contenders this week? Like most weeks, ball-striking goes a long way here. The most recent winners — Simpson, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama (twice) — all are great with their irons. The metrics point toward big hitters enjoying Phoenix, but then again, it’s played at elevation in the desert, so the ball carries. The greens are defined as Bermuda but are actually a blend. The greens have played fast over the years, which actually might neutralize some of the advantages owned by better putters, which is how someone like Matsuyama — relatively dreadful with the flat stick — can have big success there.

Ryan Palmer top 10 (+410): Jump on Palmer while you can still get him at a decent price; few players on Tour are playing better than him right now. He has two top-five finishes since the season restart, and he has a pair of career top-five finishes here.

Top Asian player — Sungjae Im (+240): Matsuyama is the favorite of this group, which is understandable given his past success in the desert. Im, however, has surpassed Matsuyama in standing within the golf world. Im is one of the best ball-strikers, and he fits perfectly in that lineage of recent winners. He looked ready to make a Sunday charge after firing a 5-under 31 on the front before blowing up on the back with a six-over 42. He’ll bounce back and be in the hunt this weekend.

Bubba Watson to win (+4500): Let’s just hope Bubba knocked the rust off last week, missing the cut at the Farmers. He loves this tournament, finishing in the top five on five separate occasions. Typically, this tournament favors the best players off the tee, and no one has gained more strokes tee-to-green in the last 24 rounds than Watson. This week feels like a good time to break through. He also tears up par-5s, which is an ingredient for success at the Stadium Course.

DFS LINEUP
Here’s a sample lineup for DFS games.

Justin Thomas — He’s consistent as they come, registering top-10 finishes in four of seven events this season. He also has two consecutive third-place finishes at the Waste Management. High ownership might be an issue, though.

Ryan Palmer– We talked about Palmer’s potential earlier, and you have to also love the six of seven made cuts.

Bubba Watson — He’s our pick to win, so of course we’re rolling with him in DFS.

Henrik Norlander — Norlander fits the course model, and he’s playing extremely well, as evidenced by a 12h-place finish at the American Express and a runner-up last week at Torrey Pines.

Keegan Bradley — A slight roll of the dice, yes, but Bradley also fits the model, and we’ll just have to hope he can make a few putts.

Matthew NeSmith — He’s top 100 in birdie-or-better percentage, so he can get hot and post a number. He’s another very good ball-striker, and he has had success on Bermuda in the past, so he could be in line for a birdie-filled weekend.

Historical strokes gained via Fantasy National Golf