Can Whatever’s Wrong With Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Be Fixed?

Raise your hand if you saw the Chiefs looking up at the likes of the Colts, Patriots and Steelers in the playoff hunt — outside the field — on Halloween of the 2021 NFL season.

Not even the most pathological liars among us would even consider such a claim, but here we are. The NFL season is just about seven weeks old, and Kansas City is not only outside of the current AFC playoff picture, but Andy Reid’s team ranks 11th in the conference.

Things got worse for KC on Sunday when it was rolled by the Tennessee Titans 27-3 in Nashville. The Chiefs are now 3-4 with a minus-15 point differential, in large part because of 203 points allowed, the second-most in the entire league.

The defense is definitely a problem, and it’s one that might not get fixed anytime soon. Kansas City’s most concerning issue, though, has to be the offense. Yes, the Chiefs still rank fifth in the NFL in yards per play, and their 26.9 points per game rank eighth in the league. But the yards and points haven’t meant wins because KC can’t stop turning the ball over. The Chiefs’ 17 turnovers are by far the most in the NFL, five clear of three teams: Houston, Jacksonville and the Jets.

When it comes to turnovers, the Chiefs are by far worse than three teams are a combined 3-16 through the first seven weeks.

At a certain point, the question is obvious: Are the Chiefs broken? Even more specifically, will Patrick Mahomes turn this thing around anytime soon? The former MVP has turned the ball over 11 times this season. His nine interceptions obviously are the most in the league, and it’s the most picks he’s thrown in a season since 2018 when he threw 12 (as well as 50 touchdowns) in his first season as Chiefs starter.

The player prop for “most interceptions thrown” looks like a typo at this point, with Mahomes very much in the running alongside rookie QBs at +650.

Most interceptions thrown (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sam Darnold +400
Trevor Lawrence +550
Zach Wilson +600
Patrick Mahomes +650

As the NFL’s NextGen Stats pointed out Monday, there’s a pretty clear trend developing when it comes to defending Mahomes after the Titans blitzed the QB one just one of his 39 dropbacks Sunday.

Here’s another nugget from ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell: Opposing defenses have played two deep safeties against the Chiefs on more than 59% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, which is much higer than the league average of 38%.

Opponents are more than content just sitting back — way back — in coverage while trying to take away the big play. The Chiefs’ running game probably isn’t good enough to take total advantage of that, and do you even want to do that when Mahomes is your quarterback? That question becomes more difficult to answer, though, when Mahomes is coughing it up like he has this season.

The Chiefs have myriad problems at the moment, and Mahomes’ inconsistent play is certainly at or near the top of the list. It’s still October, so there’s technically time to turn things around. There is, though, growing evidence — seven weeks’ worth — that maybe it can’t get turned around in the near future.

As it stands right now, the Chiefs are +1400 to win the Super Bowl, a far cry from the 5-1 neighborhood in which they opened the season. The Los Angeles Chargers are now the favorites to win the AFC West at -110, although KC is still “only” +250, ahead of the 5-2 Raiders, who are 4-1 to win the division.

The DraftKings Sportsbook isn’t yet ready to write off the Chiefs, though, with KC currently -200 to make the playoffs with not much value (+155) on the “No” to make the playoffs.

The Chiefs host the New York Giants in Week 8 on “Monday Night Football,” a game that looks on the surface like a classic get-right game — and KC better. A relatively brutal stretch awaits after Week 8 with games against the Packers, Raiders (twice), Cowboys, Chargers and Bengals in a nine-week stretch into the final couple of weeks.