Patriots-Bucs Picks: Teaser Option, Tom Brady Passing Prop For ‘SNF’

The following is a collection of expert betting analysis for the must-see Week 4 matchup between the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers from VSiN contributors.

My preseason opinion on the Patriots appears to be off. The offensive line is not performing up to expectations, the tight ends are not producing and the defense has been surprisingly weak. But it’s a long season and New England still could rally for nine wins. I’m getting away from this team until Bill Belichick finds some answers. The Buccaneers have two significant weaknesses — the league’s worst pass defense (338.3 YPG) and the 31st-ranked rushing offense (56.3 YPG) — but Tom Brady is unlikely to lose his homecoming game.

Pick: Buccaneers -0.5 on a teaser with Packers -0.5

— Matt Youmans

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Betting on the GOAT to do GOAT things on Sunday night feels like a safe proposition. There are two competing storylines for how most people expect this game to play out. Narrative one is that Tom Brady plays a near-flawless game as the Buccaneers blow out the Patriots in Foxboro. Brady exacts his final revenge on New England and leaves victorious after accounting for numerous touchdowns and passing yards. The other narrative is that no coach knows Tom Brady like Bill Belichick. Belichick crafts the perfect game plan that gives Brady a headache all night and slows him down enough for the Patriots to keep this game close if not win outright.

The actual outcome probably fits somewhere in between the two, which is why Tom Brady to go over 2.5 passing touchdowns at a plus price is one of the best bets on the weekend. The Patriots defense isn’t playing at the level most give them credit for, as they are 22nd in PFF’s opponent-adjusted grade. The only way New England is going to cover is by keeping pace with the Buccaneers offense, which could turn this game into a shootout. In this likely scenario, no matter what team covers, we should see Tom Brady exceed 2.5 passing touchdowns.

Pick: Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+116)

–Ben Brown

The Bucs (2–1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are coming off their first loss since a few days after Thanksgiving as they were beaten soundly by the Rams last week. Despite the loss, the Bucs opened as 6.5-point favorites as Tom Brady visits his old stomping ground. The line ticked up to the key number of 7, as the Patriots (1-2 SU and ATS) are coming off a lackluster performance in their home loss to the Saints. The Patriots held the Saints to 4.1 yards per play but were sunk by three turnovers, including a pick-six, losing their second straight at home. Brady off a loss and Bill Belichick off a loss — something has to give in one of the most-watched games of the season. Rob Gronkowski was banged up last week but is expected to play. The total is 49.5, down from 51.
— William Hill