Boise State vs. San Diego State Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview

The Mountain West title picture rounds into shape as the Boise State Broncos (7-4) head to Southern California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs (10-1).

The conference race is a bit of a mess, but everything will be sorted by the end of the week. This game is paramount in the standings. If San Diego State wins, they’ll host the conference championship game as the West division winners. Boise State needs a little more help, but they capture the Mountain division with a win and an Air Force loss. Heck, there’s even a scenario where these two teams face off again next week in the Championship game.

Despite the pretty record, it hasn’t been a cakewalk for San Diego State. The Aztecs narrowly escaped Las Vegas with a 28-20 victory over UNLV last week despite being outgained 290 to 394. They squeaked by Nevada on a late field goal and were outgained by Hawaii in a narrow win in their two most recent games. 

Boise State, meanwhile, is on a roll. The Broncos are winners of four straight, all coming by more than one score. While the Aztecs post a top-10 defense (17.4), they’ve proven vulnerable to every capable passing attack they’ve faced. Fresno State and Nevada both topped 300 yards, and UNLV routinely exposed SDSU’s cornerbacks en route to 386 yards. 

Boise State should be able to test SDSU vertically. Receiver Khalil Shakir (1,043 yards, 6 TDs) is a mismatch nightmare for this struggling group of Aztecs’ corners. If Boise can grab an early lead, San Diego State has not proven that they can come from behind with a measly passing attack averaging only 145.5 yards per game. Boise has more avenues to find a cover. 

The model likes the Broncos in this matchup, and we do as well.