2021-22 NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award Odds Update: Can Anyone Catch Tyler Herro?

by | Dec 1, 2021 | 4 Min Read

The starters get most of the glory in the NBA, but at least we have the Sixth Man of the Year award for bench players to aspire to. The award has honored the top reserve in basketball since 1982-83, and it has been won by legends such as Kevin McHale, Bill Walton, Manu Ginobili, and James Harden.

Unsurprisingly, we’ve seen significant movement in the futures market for this award since the start of the year. Let’s take a look at where things stand on FanDuel Sportsbook after roughly the first quarter of the season:

FanDuel Sportsbook Top 10 Odds for NBA Sixth Man of the Year

This race is turning into a bit of a laugher. Herro came out of the gates red hot, averaging 21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game through his first 18 contests. Clarkson led all reserves with 18.4 points per game last year – the main reason he won the award – and Herro is on pace to shatter that mark. He also plays for an excellent team in the Heat, who currently own the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. That’s a lethal combination in the Sixth Man race.

However, Herro has moved to a -145 favorite, and it’s hard to get behind him at that price tag. You’re essentially betting on him staying healthy, and he still has approximately 60 games left on his schedule. Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, but you can’t pretend that they don’t exist.

If you’re looking to fade Herro, there are some interesting long shots to consider.

Harrell is next on the leaderboard, and his numbers are comparable to when he won this award in 2019. He’s averaging 2.5 fewer points per game, but he’s shooting significantly better from the field. He’s also averaging a career-best 8.3 rebounds for a surprisingly competitive Wizards squad.

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Schroder and Hield are Herro’s closest competitors from a scoring perspective. Hield ranks 47th in the league with an average of 17.3 points per game, while Schroder is 49th at 17.1. Both players figure to continue scoring the ball at a similar rate, so they could rocket up the leaderboard if Herro misses an extended period.

Brunson might be my favorite value play on the board currently. He’s developed into arguably the Mavericks’ third-best player this season. He ranks third on the team in points per game and second in assists, and his traditional numbers probably understate his on-court impact. The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of +3.8 points per 100 possessions with Brunson on the floor, but that number drops to -10.3 with Brunson off the court.

Bobby Portis (+6500) isn’t listed in the top 10 currently, but he’s also someone worth considering as a long shot. He’s started most of his games for the Bucks this season, but he’ll likely return to the bench when Brook Lopez is healthy. It’s unclear when that will happen, but the most recent report was that Lopez was ramping up for a return.

Portis should continue to command a large workload, whether starting or coming off the bench, and he’s been absolutely fantastic this year. He’s averaged 15.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game while shooting 44.4% from 3-point range. That gives him similar counting stats to Harrell with better efficiency, and he plays for the defending champs.

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