Dec. 31 College Bowls Betting Previews: Alabama, Georgia On Rematch Collision Course In CFP?
Can Cincinnati's dream season continue vs. mighty 'Bama?
Here is a quick betting preview for all college football bowl games on Friday, Dec. 31, including the two College Football Playoff semifinal games.
Gator Bowl (11 a.m. ET) — Rutgers vs. (-17) No. 17 Wake Forest, 63
One storyline to know: Scarlet Knights step in
No matter what happens Friday, you’ve gotta give some credit to Rutgers for being willing to step into this game after Texas A&M bailed due to COVID-19 issues. Rutgers went just 5-7, with losses in three of their last four games. Those three defeats — at the hands of Wisconsin, Penn State and Maryland — came by a combined score of 120-19. Greg Schiano’s team had a minus-138 point differential in Big 10 play this year. So, this thing probably goes one of two ways: Either Rutgers comes in with nothing to lose and plays hard with a new lease on its 2021 football life … or the Knights get trounced by a Wake Forest team that owns one of the nation’s most explosive offenses.
One trend to know: Rutgers is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games (per Odds Shark)
Pick: Wake Forest -17
Kudos to anyone who got this when it was as low as -13.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, but even with that considerable jump, it’s hard to see Rutgers giving the Demon Deacons much of a game. Maybe Wake has a letdown after preparing for what would have been an awesome matchup with A&M, but on talent alone, there should be enough here to roll over a mediocre-at-best Rutgers squad.
Sun Bowl (12 p.m.) — Central Michigan vs. (-6.5) Washington State, 57.5
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One storyline to know: More musical chairs
The Sun Bowl was supposed to feature Washington State battling Miami. Central Michigan was supposed to play Boise State in the Arizona Bowl. Well, so much for that. The Arizona Bowl was canceled due to Boise’s COVID problems, and Miami withdrew from the Sun Bowl. Luckily, CMU and Wazz with help from their respective conferences were able to find common ground in El Paso. What that means for the actual football is difficult to say given the unprecedented circumstances.
One trend to know: Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog (per The Athletic)
Pick: Central Michigan +6.5
If there’s one area Washington State really has struggled this season, it’s stopping the run, allowing more than 160 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. The Chips, meanwhile, have found a nice little groove on the ground, with just 11 teams in the nation running it more often over their last three games. Over that three-game stretch, Central Michigan is averaging just under 5 yards per carry. It is a step up in competition, but if CMU commits to the run with Lew Nichols, it should be able to control the pace of the game, limit possessions and keep it within the number.
College Football Playoff semifinal: Cotton Bowl (3:30 p.m.) — No. 4 Cincinnati vs. (-13.5) No. 1 Alabama, 57
One storyline to know: Does Cincinnati really belong?
All of the numbers — both standard and advanced — point to Cincinnati being one of the best teams in the country. The Bearcats deserve to be here, and getting this opportunity is why so many college football fans clamored for playoffs and even expanded playoffs. But it’s so hard to say what Cincy can do against the greatest college football coach of all time and the sport’s main event. The Bearcats had the easiest schedule of any team playing on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day, including Notre Dame whose only loss of the season came to Cincinnati.
One trend to know: Alabama is 1-4 ATS after covering its previous game, which it did vs. Georgia (per The Athletic)
Pick: UNDER 57
This is an extremely difficult side to figure out. Alabama’s ceiling is obvious: A 17-point pantsing of Georgia in the SEC Championship Game speaks for itself. But this Crimson Tide isn’t the same dominant machine we’ve seen in years past from Nick Saban with some close calls down the stretch, beating LSU, Arkansas and Auburn by a combined 16 points. And as the first Group of 5 program to make the CFB, it’s hard to say what Cincinnati can do against a giant leap in competition. So, the total feels like the play here for two reasons: One, if Alabama wins in a route, it probably will be in large part because Cincinnati can’t do anything offensively against an SEC defense littered with pro prospects. The other scenario, though, is the Bearcats do hang thanks to their impressive defense and are able to turn this into a bit of a rock fight.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m.) — No. 2 Michigan vs. (-7.5) No. 3 Georgia, 46
One storyline to know: The layoff factor
If these two teams played a week or two after the conference championships, you’d probably feel pretty good taking the points with Michigan. The Wolverines used their blowout win over Ohio State as a springboard for a rout of Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Georgia, on the other hand, was left to lick its wounds after an embarrassing loss to ‘Bama that ended its perfect season. But with nearly a month off, will Michigan be cooled off? With the extra time, does Georgia scheme up the perfect plan to slow the Wolverines? We might know a lot about how this one will play out early.
One trend to know: SEC teams are just 16-19 ATS in their last 35 New Year’s six bowl games (per VSiN)
Pick: Georgia -7.5
Michigan went 12-1 straight-up and 11-2 ATS in a very good conference, so they certainly deserve to be here. But it’s just hard to see them on the same level as an SEC elite like Georgia. Michigan wants to run the ball, and it has had success doing so all season, but it hasn’t faced a run defense like the Bulldogs. Georgia’s defense ranked fourth in the nation in rush success against and was Pro Football Focus’s top-ranked tackling team. Michigan had a very good defense itself, but it’s worth wondering whether a step up in athleticism could make the slight difference allowing Georgia to cover in a low-scoring affair. A 30-20 final score seems possible in this one.
