Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

The Dallas Mavericks are sliding in the worst way, winning just three of their previous 12 games. Luka Doncic and company will try and halt that streak against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday night, who will be going for their third win over their past four outings. The betting market favors the Mavs in this one, with Dallas currently listed as -4 favorites; however, our algorithm implies an advantage in backing the home Thunder tonight.

Scoring efficiency has held the Mavericks back during their recent slide, and there’s a strong correlation between their offense and wins over their recent sample. The Mavs have played seven games since November 29; Dallas is 2-0 over that stretch when they score 100 or more points, and is 0-5 when they score less than 100. The Mavs will have to keep pace with a Thunder offense finding ways to score over their recent sample.

The Thunder have scored 110 or more in three of their past five, and hose improved offensive performances have to do with the success they’ve had at the free-throw line. In games that the Thunder have reached the 110 point mark, they’ve gone to the charity stripe at least 20 times and hit at least 17 of their attempts.

Another difference that has led to stronger offensive performances is success from long-range. The Thunder rank last in the league with a three-point shooting percentage of 30.5%, but have had above-average performances in two of their past three games by knocking down 33.1% of shots from beyond the arc. That spells trouble for the Mavs, who allow the ninth-worst three-point shooting percentage in the NBA.

Based on our projections, the Thunder’s offense should continue to roll against the Mavs suspect defense. That results in edges on the spread, moneyline, and total. We rate the Thunder +4 and moneyline picks as 3-star wagers and the over as a 5-star play.