Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks for NFL Week 17 on FanDuel Sportsbook

According to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, at 8-7, the San Francisco 49ers still have a 75% chance to make the playoffs. However, they might have to take the field on Sunday without their starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has yet to practice this week due to a thumb injury on his throwing hand. If Garoppolo cannot play, it’ll be the rookie Trey Lance who’ll get the start.

I must admit that I’m a bit surprised that the 49ers are still available as a 12.5-point favorite against the Houston Texans. The 49ers opened as a 15-point point favorite, so the current point spread likely reflects Garoppolo being out.

Frankly, I think the sportsbooks got caught with their pants down, and they don’t want to adjust their numbers any further and get middled. Sometimes, when you hang a poor number, it’s better to treat it as a sunk cost. Sharp bettors took the 15 points with the Texans, and if the spread dropped anywhere near a touchdown, you could bet that they’ll jump back in and lay the points with the 49ers.

As for the Texans, I’ve been somewhat impressed with them this season. Despite its 4-11 record, Houston’s 7-8 against the spread.

The Texans came into this contest on a two-game winning streak and pulled off perhaps the biggest upset this season by defeating the Chargers 41-29 as a 13.5-point underdog. With the 49ers almost on the doorstep of a playoff berth, I think their head coach, Kyle Shanahan, will take much more of a conservative approach in the game.

Look for Shanahan and the 49ers to rely heavily on their running game and not their rookie quarterback. I’d also look to target some 49ers rushing props, but since sportsbooks have yet to post those odds, I can only look to take the points with the road underdogs.

It’s a little absurd to expect a rookie to cover a double-digit spread in his second start in the league. Back the Texans to keep this one close.