Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks for NFL Week 16 on FanDuel Sportsbook

After a seven-game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins bounced back to win its next six contests. However, before we lavish them with praise, five of the six games during this recent run were against teams with a combined record of 17-43. That amounts to a .283 winning percentage, in case you’re wondering.

The best team the Dolphins played during its winning streak was the Ravens, and Miami won as an 8.5-point home underdog. Nevertheless, the Fins have played a soft schedule since November, and I think they have benefited from the lack of dynamism their opponents have on offense. In other words, each of those opponents ranks in the bottom half of Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA metric. Moreover, four of the five opponents are ranked 27th or worse.

On Monday night, Miami will play another team ranked in the bottom half in pass DVOA when it travels to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Barring any miracle, New Orleans will likely be without quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian due to COVID protocols. That means the Saints will probably turn to rookie quarterback Ian Book for his first career start.

Book’s NFL experience consists of a second-half appearance during Week 1 of the preseason against the Ravens. The former Notre Dame pivot completed 9-16 passes for 126 yards and threw an interception. While the lack of experience is undoubtedly a concern, it was even more damning to read reports that the Saints made overtures to Drew Brees and Philip Rivers in an attempt to lure them out of retirement.

Although I’d love to be a contrarian here, I can’t back the Saints if the organization is hesitant to do the same for its rookie quarterback. I can only look to back the road favorites here. Lay the points with the Dolphins at -3.