NBA Betting Guide for Friday, December 17: Target This Total In Atlanta

Although targeting the under has been very profitable this season, we cashed a rare ticket on the over in the Knicks-Rockets game on Thursday. The total is 194-228 to the over this season, and while that’s only cashing 46% of the time, you can still find certain situational spots that offer value. We’ll explore one of those games when the Hawks host the Denver Nuggets on Friday night.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

It’s not that often this season that we’ve seen a total of around 226.5 points. Thus, when you visit a game with a total that high, you want to make sure you know what you’re looking at and the possible reasons behind the oddsmakers’ decision to post such a high number. After some review, given how the Nuggets have played over their past ten games, I think their reasons are justified.

The Nuggets are averaging 112 points over their past ten games, and the total’s also 9-1 to the over during that stretch.

The key to this handicap rests on the efficiency of both teams. Denver (53.6%) and Atlanta (53.5%) rank sixth and seventh in effective field goal percentages that adjust to account for three-point field goals vs. two-point field goals.

As far as defense is concerned, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league as Denver is 18th in allowing 107 points per 100 possessions while Atlanta is 25th with 108.6 points allowed. This figures to be a game that both offenses should enjoy playing in, as I don’t anticipate either team will focus much on their defensive responsibilities.

In its past ten games, Atlanta’s yet to post consecutive games where the total’s gone under. And with its previous game finishing under, this is an excellent spot for that trend to continue. Moreover, note that the total is 4-0-1 to the over in the past five meetings between these teams. It doesn’t get much better than the star power of Nikola Jokić and Trae Young on the court together. That should help keep things pretty interesting for tonight’s game.

In conclusion, given the efficiency of both teams, I think there’s enough to justify a play on the over in this spot. However, after an excellent start to the season, I’ll continue to remain risk-averse as I’ll use just a half-unit of my bankroll on the over.

Pick: Over 226.5

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid