NBA Betting Guide for Monday, December 20: Celtics Are Overvalued At Home vs. 76ers

We finished off the week on Sunday night by cashing the over in the Hornets-Suns game. I particularly enjoyed that handicap because the total got as high as 230.5, yet the over still managed to cash. For Monday, I’m targeting an underdog that seems to be a bit undervalued in a matchup that has plenty of uncertainty given the lengthy injury reports of both teams.

Let’s head to the TD Garden, where the Celtics will host the 76ers.

The Boston Celtics have as many as ten players on the injury report. Notably, Jayson Tatum (ankle) and Dennis Schroder (illness) are listed as game-time decisions. As for the 76ers, they have eight players on the injury report, and their game-time decisions include Joel Embiid (ankle), Tyrese Maxey (quad), and Danny Green (hip). Whenever you have this much uncertainty on both sides, I think the underdog becomes inherently more valuable catching points. However, given that this is a divisional clash, I expect that the players listed as a game-time decision will be on the court for tonight’s matchup.

Both teams come into the contest with identical 15-15 records. Although, it’s the 76ers that are desperately in need of a win after losing their past three games. As a result, I’d expect a competitive performance from Philadelphia on Monday night. It’s worth noting that Philadelphia’s covered the spread in each of the past five meetings in this series. Historically, NBA road teams on a three-game losing streak are 622-564-22 for +27.5 units in this spot. Moreover, this season, teams are 17-12 for +3.65 units.

This is essentially a sweet spot for bettors, and it’s a winning system that has been successful over time.

If we look at the statistics of both teams on the court this season, they’re tied in offensive efficiency with 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Defensively, Boston has the edge as it’s allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions while Philadelphia’s allowing 107.2. However, I don’t see these two teams as that far apart, mainly when Embiid is on the court. The former third overall pick is a defensive nightmare for the Celtics, who lack the size on the interior to defend him without sending double teams.

I’d trust the veteran 76ers head coach Doc Rivers, who badly needs a win for his team against the Celtics rookie coach, Ime Udoka. I like the idea of getting more than a field goal here, so I’ll take the 3.5 points in a matchup that could come down to the final shot in the ballgame.

Pick: 76ers +3.5

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.