NBA Betting Guide for Sunday, December 12: Lakers Are Overvalued At Home

It’s been a disappointing weekend thus far in the association as we couldn’t cash our ticket on the Warriors after their fourth-quarter collapse. Golden State even built a 13-point lead early in the second half. Unfortunately, it was one of those days as even Stephen Curry shot just 3-14 from behind the arc.

We’ll need to change things up, so I’m targeting an underdog on the road to close out the week. Let’s head to Los Angeles, where the Lakers will welcome in the Magic.

The Orlando Magic have just one win in their last ten games, but the effort has certainly been there on the basketball court. Orlando’s covered the spread in four of its previous six games and should be able to carry some momentum into tonight’s game following a narrow two-point loss to the Clippers on Saturday night. As for the Lakers, they’ve yet to show any reason to trust them laying double-digits—even if the opponent is a 5-22 Magic team.

The Lakers have the worst ATS mark in the league at 10-17, and as a home favorite, they’re just 4-10 on the campaign. Moreover, Los Angeles has covered the spread in back-to-back games just once this season. If there was ever a time to fade the Lakers off a game, it’s this one. Los Angeles quickly covered the spread by 17.5 points in their previous game against Oklahoma City. Nonetheless, consistency remains an issue for this team as they continue to experience highs and lows from one game to another. It seems like this team thinks it’s better than it is for some reason. Perhaps they’re just biding their time, so they’re healthy when the playoffs come around. However, that approach was tried and failed last season, resulting in a quick playoff exit in the first round.

Offensively, the numbers aren’t there for the Lakers as they rank 23rd in efficiency with 104.5 points per 100 possessions. The reality is that this isn’t a very modern team by any stretch. Los Angeles is 17th in three-point shooting with 11.9 field goals per game. In contrast, the young Magic team is above average from behind the perimeter with an average of 12.3 three-point baskets per game.

This number seems too high against an Orlando team that’s had success in Tinseltown. Note that the Magic are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings and they’re on a 4-0 ATS run on the road in Los Angeles.

I think this is a letdown spot for the Lakers, so I’ll gladly take the points here with road underdogs.

Pick: Magic +10.5