NBA Betting Guide for Sunday, December 19: Fast Tempo Should Lead To Points In Phoenix

Our three-game winning streak ended on Saturday, so we’ll try to finish strong on the final day of the week. We’ve had some success playing totals recently, so it makes sense to carry on with the same approach. As a result, I’m targeting a lofty total in Phoenix that, while it may seem a bit high initially, a deeper dive into the matchup does reveal some promising signs.

I know what you’re thinking. You’re saying to yourself, “He’s not going to play an over with a total that’s already at 230, is he?”. Typically, this is a play I’d rarely make, but there are some similarities both teams possess that could lead to plenty of points in this matchup.

For one, the Hornets and Suns rank in the top-six in terms of pace. Charlotte averages 104.6 possessions per game, while Phoenix averages 103.2 per game. It’s one thing to play at a fast pace with plenty of possessions; it’s another thing to maintain a high level of efficiency. That’s something that both teams do successfully as Charlotte ranks third in effective field goal percentage 54.3% while Phoenix is sixth at 53.8%. It’s important to note that the effective field goal percentage is adjusted to account for three-point field goals vs. two-point field goals. Those numbers indeed point to plenty of scoring for the Hornets, who are third in offensive efficiency with 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

The problem is that Charlotte’s the worst defensive team in the league as it’s allowing 111.6 points per 100 possessions this season. Moreover, that number’s up to 123.5 points per 100 possessions over its last three games.

Here are a few trends you should keep in mind for this game:

• The total is 5-1 to the over when these teams meet in Phoenix.
• The total is 10-3 to the over in the last 13 meetings.
• Games involving the Hornets with a total of at least 230 points are on a 5-0 run to the over.
• On one day’s rest, the total is 6-0-1 to the over in Charlotte’s previous seven games.

Thus, while it might look somewhat scary to play a total that seems a bit high, the data points give plenty of reason to support a play on the over.

There’s still plenty of money coming in on the over. I recommend playing this number under 230, and with alternate lines available, I’d look to grab the over at 228.5 and swallow the juice at -126.

Pick: Over 228.5 (-126)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.