NBA Betting Guide for Thursday, December 16: Expect Plenty Of Points In Houston

On Wednesday, everything went according to plan as we had the correct handicap and situational spot, with the Grizzlies covering the spread as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Trail Blazers.  Today, with just four games on the card, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about. However, I am targeting a total in Houston with two teams that haven’t played a ton of defense this season.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

There’s a reason why the total for this game is sitting at 215, which seems somewhat high considering that scoring is down across the league this season. Both teams rank in the bottom third in terms of defensive efficiency as the Knicks are 22nd in allowing 107.3 points per 100 possessions while the Rockets are 24th (108 points per 100 possessions).

Last season, New York finished third in defensive efficiency, and the reality is that the roster is now made up of much more offensive-minded players. This makes sense when you consider New York’s attempting seven more three-pointers per game this season compared to last year. It’s also worth noting that the Knicks rank sixth with 13.3 three-point field goals per game. That average is up to 14 over their previous three games. The Knicks will be up against a Rockets team that’s 21st in perimeter defense as opponents are averaging 13 three-point baskets per game.

With Houston as the home team, I’d expect them to dictate the pace in this matchup. The Rockets rank third in pace with 104.6 possessions per game, and I think the Knicks will relish this type of game given that it’s likely to have fewer demands on them defensively. That’s a big reason why the total is 5-0-1 to the over in their past six meetings in Houston.

Another thing to remember is that this will be Houston’s third game in four nights and second in as many days. Fatigue could start to set in for the Rockets, leading to tired legs on defense. The total has also gone over in the Rockets’ previous six games playing on back-to-back nights. However, the bookmakers are shading to the under a bit as it’s juiced four additional cents (-114).

As a result, I’ll limit my action on the over to a half-unit and let the chips fall where they may.

Pick: Over 215

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid