NBA Betting Preview: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Although Santa Claus didn’t gift us a winner on Christmas Day, we can still finish the week on a good note on Sunday. I’ll be looking to target a game that I think has the wrong team favored.

Let’s head to Oklahoma City, where the Thunder welcome the New Orleans Pelicans.

It might come as a surprise, but the Pelicans and Thunder are playing good basketball at the moment. Both teams are a combined 7-1 in their last eight games. Some of the wins were against quality teams, as evidenced by the Pelicans’ 116-112 overtime victory against reigning champions, the Milwaukee Bucks. As for the Thunder, two of their victories came against the Grizzlies and Clippers. Both teams are above .500 on the season.

Interestingly enough, one of the Pelicans’ victories during this recent winning streak was against the Thunder. However, things could be a bit different this time around as New Orleans will be without two of its top three scorers in Jonas Valanciunas and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Valanciunas is second on the team with 18.6 points per game, while Alexander-Walker is third with 13.8 points. That’s a decent amount of production to lose if you’re a Pelicans team that’s just 12-21 on the campaign. It’s unlikely that a team that’s struggled as much as the Pelicans this season will have a ton of quality just sitting idly on the bench.

On the other hand, Oklahoma City is pretty healthy as it doesn’t have any players listed on the injury report. That’s quite a rarity especially considering how COVID-19 has ravaged teams around the league. The Thunder will certainly be buoyed by their performances in recent games, including the 113-101 loss to the Suns Thursday night.

It’s worth noting that Oklahoma City’s covered the spread in each of its past five games, and it’s also 7-2 against the spread in the past nine meetings with New Orleans. This handicap is strictly based on the injury report and who’s available for the Pelicans. Given the circumstances, this line is mispriced according to my model.

The value’s on the Thunder in this spot, so be sure to grab the point with the home underdog.

Pick: Thunder +1

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.