Understanding line movement and using it to your advantage so you can get on the right side of the closing number is a vital aspect of sports betting. We’re going to take a deep dive into a few lines that have already adjusted, whether it be news or early sharp money. Let’s get into some Week 15 action and where we may see things end up by game time.
Moneyline: Texans +130 | Jaguars -154
Spread: Texans +3 (-114) | Jaguars -3 (-106)
Total: 39.5 Over -110 | Under -110
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: Texans N/A | Jaguars N/A
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A basement AFC South matchup headlines our opening odds analysis because a total has now plummeted below 40. This number opened at the lookahead before Week 14’s action at 43.5 and has now dropped four points after combining to put up just 13 points in each of their losses. Houston and Jacksonville rank 32nd and 27th in yards per play, respectively, which means there could be plenty of punts and stalled drives leading to an ugly score in this one. The drop in the total shows that’s what early sharps are expecting between these two, so if you are looking to back the under, the best of it is clearly gone. If you think this number has gone too far, you may want to wait a bit more to see if you can get a 39 or even a 38.5 by kickoff.
Moneyline: Seahawks +198 | Rams -240
Spread: Seahawks +5 (-105) | Rams -5 (-115)
Total: 46.5 Over -106 | Under -114
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: Seahawks +23000 | Rams +1100
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After facing elimination with a 3-8 record just two weeks ago, the Seattle Seahawks have ripped out two straight wins and head to Los Angeles to look to stay alive in the NFC Wild Card race against the division-rival Rams on Sunday. In the eyes of sharp bettors, they seem to be a live dog because an opening spread of -7 has since come down to -5 following some Seattle backing. The worry here may be the COVID outbreak within the Rams organization. The team had five players miss out on their Monday Night Football victory over the Arizona Cardinals and announced on Tuesday that wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. was placed on its COVID reserve list. Grabbing Seattle now may still be a value play as it’s anybody’s best guess who may be next in line to potentially miss this matchup with a positive test.
Moneyline: Packers -215 | Ravens +180
Spread: Packers -4.5 (-112) | Ravens +4.5 (-108)
Total: 43.5 Over -110 | Under -110
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: Packers +650 | Ravens +3000
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
This line has been a rare case of movement in both directions after a lookahead line of -2 was posted prior to the Week 14 action. An ankle injury to Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson spiked this number to -7 on Sunday night but has since come back to its current spot of -4.5 after head coach John Harbaugh said he is planning to have him out there in Week 15. After plenty of news movement, it will be interesting to see where the sharp action takes this line for the rest of the week as we get more news on both Jackson’s health and the health of the toe of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, something that has been bothering him for several weeks now. Injuries are likely to mold this line more than anything, so beating the line movement on any injury news may be the way to beat the number in this unpredictable spot.