NFL Week 16 Line Movement Report: Saints' Spread Swings by Nearly a TD

We see it every week. Books hang lines, sharp bettors move lines, and public money steams them even further; but this week, line movement has been amplified by injury and COVID-19 concerns. There’s a lot at stake, as teams jostle for position in a highly tight playoff race. It doesn’t all come down to Week 16, but it is a make-or-break week for many teams.

As usual, we’re running through some of the more significant line moves from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals -2.5 to -3

The AFC North playoff race is coming down to the wire, with all teams within one game of each other. Sitting atop the division is the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, who renew acquaintances in Cincinnati on Sunday. Whichever team walks away victorious will control their own destiny over the final two weeks of the season, and early action suggests that will be the Bengals. Although subtle, this line move takes this spread onto a key number and could reflect Lamar Jackson’s uncertain status against Cinci. One way or another, this line will continue to move on Sunday morning, when Jackson’s official game status is known.

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders -1 to +1

Home-field advantage and Drew Lock starting at quarterback aren’t enough to convince bettors that the Las Vegas Raiders are worth backing against the Denver Broncos. After a thrilling victory against the Cleveland Browns on Monday, the Raiders currently sit as +1 home underdogs against the Broncos.

Injuries are impacting both teams. Since Thanksgiving, knee and back injuries have kept Darren Waller out, and practice reports suggest that he’s no closer to suiting up against Denver. Similarly, after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss to the Bengals, Teddy Bridgewater is out. Both teams will have to get by while dealing with injuries to key players.

Weighing all the available evidence, the betting market has seen enough to back the Broncos in this AFC West clash. Whichever team walks away victorious keeps their slim playoff hopes alive.

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints

Saints -3.5 to +3
Total 39 to 37.5

There were a pair of significant moves in this week’s Monday nighter, with the total and spread both on the move. The betting market quickly adjusted the line after money poured in on the Miami Dolphins, taking them from underdogs to -3 favorites against the New Orleans Saints. This total opened in the high 30s and was still bought down to 37.5, expressing confidence in what should be a defensive battle.

This is a classic letdown spot for the Saints after shutting out Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, but there’s more impacting the betting confidence in the Saints. New Orleans’ offense has scored nine or fewer points in two of their past four games, recording a combined 402 yards of offense in those games. The Fins’ defense has been efficient over their recent stretch allowing an average of 225.3 yards per game over their past three. That is enough to shift the Dolphins from underdogs to favorites and the total down to 37.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -10.5 to -8.5
Total 46.5 to 45

Another crucial AFC matchup is scheduled for Sunday, featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. KC overcame their slow start and is the number one seed in the AFC, while the Steelers continue to find ways to win, remaining in the playoff conversation in the ultra-tight AFC North.

This game follows a similar pattern as the previously mentioned affair, with the underdog and under drawing action. The Steelers have a knack for keeping things close, with nine of their past 10 games decided by eight points or less. Kansas City’s defense has been unbeatable, giving up more than 17 points just once over their seven-game win streak and limiting opponents to an average of 13.3 points. That’s the Steelers brand of football, setting the stage for a classic AFC matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets

Jets -2 to -1

So this one doesn’t have any playoff implications, but it will impact where these teams land in the draft order. The Jacksonville Jaguars have looked out of sorts this season, going 2-12 and failing to live up to already low expectations. On that basis, they moved on from Urban Meyer, which was enough to garner early action for their Week 16 matchup against the New York Jets. The line movement is notable for two reasons; first, the Jets have home-field advantage and have been competitive recently. Second, the Jags are 0-6 on the road this season and have lost six straight games by a combined 96 points. We’ll see if the betting market is right for fading the Jets on Sunday.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid