UFC 269 Betting Preview: Nunes vs. Pena

The co-main event features the undisputed queen of two divisions, Amanda Nunes. She will defend her Bantamweight title against Julianna Pena. This fight was supposed to happen in August but had to be rescheduled after Nunes tested positive for COVID-19. Nunes will have a two-inch height advantage. However, their reach is identical, but Nunes does have a slightly longer leg reach. Nunes has won 12 in a row between two divisions, and her last defeat was over seven years ago.

In contrast, Pena has only strung together one win, and it was over a 40-year-old Sara McMann. She’s also alternated wins and loses dating back to 2016. Nunes’ last two fights have been at Featherweight, and her previous Bantamweight fight was in December of 2019. You never want to say a fighter has no chance because anyone has a puncher’s chance. But Pena has no chance. However, the odds are so slanted towards Nunes that it’s almost not worth betting on her to win outright. We cannot bet on just Nunes winning, but instead, we’ll have to choose the method of victory as well. Most of Nunes’ 13 wins have come by knockout, but she also has four wins by submission. Potentially, Nunes could hurt Pena and finish with a submission, but the more likely outcome is Nunes batters her at all distances until she knocks Pena out. Nunes is a dangerous striker at range, but she’s even more deadly in close.

Additionally, Pena will have to close the distance to find a takedown and probably take loads of punishment to do it, and even then, it isn’t guaranteed to be successful. Pena’s only chance at winning is on the ground, and Nunes is arguably the better grappler. Nunes successfully defends the takedown 84 percent of the time. She has a higher submission rate than Pena, and she wins by knockout or technical knockout 62 percent of the time. Nunes has beaten a who’s who in two divisions, while Pena has primarily been inconsistent. The UFC bills Pena as a submission fighter, but her last two losses have been by submission to two strikers. There doesn’t seem to be any way that Pena wins this fight. Nunes should outclass her in every aspect of the match. We expect this one to end by knockout and early. 

The Bets: Nunes by KO/TKO (-330), How Will the Fight End: KO/TKO (-170), Nunes to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 OR Round 2 (+105), Nunes KO/TKO and Round 1 (+200)