UFC 269 Betting Preview: Oliveira vs. Poirier

The main event features two great finishers. The challenger Dustin Poirier is fresh off of back-to-back knockouts of Conor McGregor, while the champion Charles Oliveira is coming off of a second-round knockout of Michael Chandler. Oliveira will have a one-inch height and two-inch reach advantage, but Poirier is the thicker of the two fighters. Both have spent a bit of time at Featherweight but have since established themselves at Lightweight. Poirier is on a three-fight win streak, and Oliveira has won nine in a row. Oliveira has 28 finishes of his 31 wins, but seven of his losses have also come by submission or knockout. Similarly, 21 of Poirier’s wins have resulted in a finish. 

Early in Oliveira’s career, inconsistency was a problem. He has always been a submission threat, mainly because he would take risks to chase a finish on the ground. There was also an argument that Oliveira would wilt under pressure on the feet, but he has re-invented himself over the past three years. Oliveira is not only one of the most dangerous fighters on the ground; he’s a threat on the feet now as well.

Meanwhile, Poirier has always been a heavy hitter, but he’s progressively improved the technical aspects of his striking. The only loss he’s suffered over his past ten fights was to Khabib Nurmagomedov for the championship. Outside of Nurmagomedov, Oliveira will be the most dangerous grappler Poirier has faced. At the same time, Oliveira has historically had problems with elite strikers. Oliveira’s advantage over Poirier in this fight is that he is a threat anywhere it takes place. However, Poirier has shown a more remarkable ability to fight under pressure. Despite Oliveira coming in as the champion, he’s buckled under the pressure in the past.

Meanwhile, Poirier has faced the scrutiny of a McGregor fight twice in a row. Oliveira fights very well from distance, has a good jab, and has solid outside leg kicks. Poirier’s boxing has improved immensely over his career, and he has a nasty counter right. Poirier possesses a concrete chin as well. Both of these fighters are extremely dangerous, which is why the odds favor a finish in this match. Poirier seems to be the more durable of the two fighters, and he should have a power advantage. There is no doubt that Oliveira could finish this fight at any moment, but we expect Poirier to have a mental edge. We’re leaning toward Poirier overwhelming Oliveira with volume and winning the title.

The Bets: Poirier (-170), Poirier by KO/TKO (+120), How Will the Fight End: KO/TKO (-135)