Date: Sunday, January 9
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: Bears +200 | Vikings -245
Spread: Vikings -5.5
Total: 43.5 Over -115 | Under -105
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: Bears NA | Vikings NA
Chicago Bears Analysis
Veteran quarterback Andy Dalton will start in place of rookie Justin Fields for the Chicago Bears season-finale against their division rival Minnesota Vikings. Chicago’s offense prefers to take a more balanced approach to their play calling using a 56%/44% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz). In the receiving corps, look for wide receivers Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson and tight end Cole Kmet to see a full allotment of targets, facing a Vikings defense ranked 17th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). One weak spot for the Vikings looks to be their run defense, ranked among the league’s worst (25th per Football Outsiders), which may signal additional production for lead running back David Montgomery. Responsible for 63% of the workload in the backfield, Montgomery averages 17.1 rushing attempts per game and 3.63 yards per carry this season and should see plenty of volume, despite the Bears currently sitting as a 5.5-point underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook.
On the road this year, the Bears are 3-5 against the spread, posting a 3-5 record outright.
Minnesota Vikings Analysis
Quarterback Kirk Cousins will likely return to action this week after landing on the COVID-19 injured reserve. Cousins leads a Vikings offense skewing more pass-heavy, using a 59%/41% pass-to-run play calling ratio, calling a play at the 10th fastest pace (25.8 seconds per snap). Chicago’s defense may give the Cousins and the Vikings’ offense trouble, ranked 13th in DVOA. However, with wide receiver Adam Thielen out for the year, look for Cousins to target second-year wide out Justin Jefferson, who is responsible for 28% of the target share in the receiving corps and should have a full allotment of looks from Cousins, averaging 10 targets per game and 14.7 yards per reception. Like the Vikings, the Bears’ run defense is a weak point, ranked 23rd, signaling an opportunity for running back Dalvin Cook. Cook, who sees 74% of the workload in the backfield, averages 4.6 yards per attempt and may have additional looks in a clock-killing situation with the Vikings as home favorites.
At home this year, the Vikings are 3-4 against the spread, posting a 4-3 record outright.