Detroit Pistons vs. Golden State Warriors: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

In a seemingly Bizzaro world twist the one-time indestructible Warriors come into this meeting as cold as ice while the lowly Pistons are on one of their hottest stretches of the season.

The Pistons are second-last in the Eastern Conference but have won three of their past five games. They’re coming off a 135-108 loss to the Suns. Cory Joseph and Cade Cunningham each had a team-high 21 points in the loss. Jerami Grant leads Detroit in scoring, averaging 20.1 points per game, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists. However, Grant has been sidelined since December 10 with a thumb injury. Kelly Olynyk is also out for Tuesday’s game with a knee issue.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are second in the Western Conference but have lost five of their past seven games. During that span, Klay Thompson made his long-awaited return to the lineup. However, Golden State has lost three of Thompson’s four games back. The Warriors are coming off a 119-99 loss to the Timberwolves. Jordan Poole had a team-high 20 points in the loss. Notably missing from the lineup were Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Curry is nursing a hand injury and will be a game-time decision against the Pistons. Green will be out for two weeks with a disk issue in his back.

Golden State is 12th in NBA scoring, averaging 109.9 points per game, while Detroit is 29th with 100.8. The Warriors limit opponents to the least amount of points in the league, averaging 102, while the Pistons sit 24th, allowing 111.3 per night. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 218.5, but the model thinks their combined points will be closer to 222.6.

Against the spread, Detroit is 20-22 and 9-12 on the road, while Golden State is 24-17-2 ATS and 14-6-1 at home. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their past four games following a double-digit loss at home. In their past five games playing on one day’s rest, the Warriors are 0-5 ATS. The under is 4-0 in Detroit’s past four games, following a loss of more than ten points.

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Model thinks there is value with Detroit in this matchup. According to the model, the Pistons have a 17.74 percent chance of winning, a fair moneyline of +464, and an expected point margin of 10.8. Compare that to Fanduel Sportsbook, which has Detroit at +900 on the moneyline and +15 on the spread.

The model recommends the Pistons moneyline, sheerly based on the value payout it would bring, and spread, giving both wagers four-star ratings. However, it’s more lukewarm on the over, giving that bet only three stars.