Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Model expects the Heat to handle the Trail Blazers tonight. According to the model, Miami has a 73.56 percent chance of winning, a fair moneyline of -278, and an expected margin of victory of 7.4 points. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the Heat are -126 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the spread. Basically, the model thinks the oddsmakers should lean more heavily favor Miami.

The Heat are fourth in the Eastern Conference but have dropped their past two games. Their previous game was a 115-108 loss to the Warriors. Jimmy Butler tied for the game-high with 22 points before leaving the game. Butler twisted his ankle in the third quarter and had to be helped off the court. With Butler out against Portland, Miami is without its leading scorer. It will fall on Tyler Herro to shoulder more of the scoring load. He averages 20.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and four assists a game.

Butler joins a growing list of absences for the Heat. Bam Adebayo is out after having surgery on his right thumb. Dewayne Dedmon has been sidelined since December 26 with a knee injury. Markieff Morris hasn’t played since November 8 because of a neck injury, and KZ Okpala is out with a wrist injury. And let’s not forget the players in the NBA’s health and safety protocols, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, and Marcus Garrett, have missed the past three games, while Max Strus has missed the past four.

Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are 12th in the Western Conference and are coming off a 136-131 win over the Hawks. Anfernee Simons had a game-high 43 points and added seven assists. Damian Lillard leads the team in scoring, averaging 24 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.1 rebounds. However, the Blazers will be without Lillard for another week due to lower abdominal tendinopathy. Their second-leading scorer, C.J. McCollum, is also out indefinitely due to a collapsed lung. Portland has also been without Larry Nance Jr. and Cody Zeller.

Rip City is 13th in NBA scoring, averaging 109 points a game, while the Heat are 16th with 107.9. Defensively, Miami is much better, limiting opponents to 104.2 points a game, while Portland allows 113.2 to rank 27th. However, it’s hard to say how impactful these numbers are, considering both teams are limping their way into this game.

Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 216.5, but the model thinks their combined points will be closer to 221.7.