NBA Betting Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Toronto Raptors

On Monday night, we cashed a ticket with the Grizzlies, who won outright as a seven-point underdog against the Nets. The victory keeps us nearly perfect with a 2-0-1 ATS mark to start the New Year. We’ll need to work hard to find our next winner as Tuesday’s slate only has five games on the go. Given such a small card, there’s not a ton of places to find value.

However, I expanded my search to include the props market, and that’s where we’ll find our play of the day.

One positive about player props is that there’s plenty of data to sift through on a game-by-game basis. The market also tends to be very reactionary in how bookmakers set their lines. That can create opportunities for savvy bettors who prefer a contrarian approach to their handicapping.

One contrarian play that jumps out to me is the rebounds+assists prop of 12.5 for Spurs point guard Derrick White. Note that White’s averaging 3.5 rebounds and 5.6 assists this season. Part of the reason White’s projection is so high is that the Spurs will be without guards Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV due to COVID protocols. And while White racked up 14 assists and three rebounds in the Spurs’ previous game, he also logged 42 minutes in the contest.

This season, White played at least 40 minutes on just two occasions. The last time that occurred, he played 30 minutes in the next game. Given how teams scrutinize players’ minutes in today’s game, we may see White’s minutes somewhat restricted again on Tuesday.

Furthermore, it’s possible we could also see the Spurs play a much slower-paced game, given their short-handed roster. And since the Raptors rank 25th in possessions per game, a slower tempo could be very much to their liking. Lastly, of the six times that White’s finished with at least 12.5 rebounds and assists, only one once did he eclipse that mark in his next game.

As a result, the best way to approach this game for me would be to target White’s player prop and play it under 12.5.

Pick: Derrick White rebounds+assists under 12.5 (-128)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.