The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz play the backend of a home-and-home series on Wednesday night. The Suns won on their home court on Monday, knocking off the Jazz 115-109 but failing to cover the -12.5 spread. Phoenix has been seemingly unbeatable this month, going 10-1, and they’ll have a chance to improve that record against a Jazz squad still dealing with injuries.
Suns (37-9) vs. Jazz (30-18)
Date: Wednesday, January 26
Time: 10:00 P.m. ET
Vivint Arena
TV Coverage: ESPN, SportsNet RM, BSAZ
Moneyline: Suns -124|Jazz +106
Spread: Suns -2 (-106)|Jazz +2 (-114)
Total: 223.5 Over (-110)|Under (-110)
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Suns +700|Jazz +1200
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SG Betting Model Win Probability: Suns 69.88%|Jazz 30.12%
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Suns – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: Suns – 4 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: No Rating
Injuries impacted the Jazz’s competitiveness against the Suns on Monday, as they were without all five starters. Still, they managed to put up a respectable 49.4% shooting percentage, including going 14-for-31 from beyond the arc. However, the Jazz remain without a couple of key players tonight that will impact their ability to keep pace with the best team in the league. Two of their top three leading scorers, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, remain out, meaning role players will have to duplicate their success from the last time out if the Jazz hope to have a chance in this one.
The Suns have been efficient on both ends of the court over their recent hot streak. Phoenix is averaging 115.1 points per game and allowing 101.4 since the start of the month. That dominance is cooked into the spreads, as Phoenix has entered three of their past five games as double-digit favorites. That’s not the case tonight, as the Suns are installed as -2 road favorites against the Jazz. They have an excellent track record as modest favorites this year, going 11-3 when they enter the contest as favorites of -4 or lower.
Based on our projections, the shorthanded Jazz are out of their depths against the Suns tonight. Phoenix has a 69.88% chance of winning, which is in excess of the 55.4% implied probability of their -124 moneyline price. That significant difference rates as a 5-star play, as per our algorithm. There is also a more modest edge in backing them on the spread, which we rate as a 4-star play.