San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds, Trends and Picks for Championship Weekend on FanDuel Sportsbook

A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line on Sunday when the 49ers and Rams meet in the NFC Championship Game. It’ll be the third meeting between the two teams, and oftentimes, this would be the perfect setup for a rubber match between two divisional opponents. However, the Rams are still looking for their first victory against the 49ers this season.

I’ve spent the entire week trying to find a way to make a case for the Rams, and I don’t think I can get there. The 49ers have six straight victories against the Rams, and after digging into this matchup, I think there’s enough supporting evidence that explains San Francisco’s continued success.

There’s something to be said about both coaches’ Xs, and O’s as Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan seems more readily able to make in-game adjustments than his counterpart Sean McVay. To better understand this, let’s look at the Rams defense, which arguably can be considered the strongest area of the team with players like Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Jalen Ramsey, and the addition of Von Miller. Los Angeles is notorious for showing a lot of pre-snap motions on defense to confuse opposing teams.

However, the numbers show that the 49ers are the highest pre-snap motion teams on offense. This effectively negates the Rams’ advantage as they either have to reveal their defensive shape or their players get caught out of position by over-shifting against the 49ers’ offense.

Shanahan is playing a very multi-layered metagame against McVay. And up to this point, McVay has struggled to counteract the moves of his mentor.

San Francisco creates matchup problems for the Rams and the 49ers’ defense to get to the quarterback without sending blitz packages. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, the 49ers finished the season 29th with a 19.8% blitz rate, yet the team was tied for fifth in sacks (48). The Rams are great when things are going well for them, but there is a sense of vulnerability when things break down. In the first meeting, we saw some of that vulnerability when the Rams started the game with back-to-back turnovers. In the second meeting,  the Rams had two more turnovers. And who can forget the four turnovers in the Divisional Round that allowed the Buccaneers back into the game?

In contrast, the 49ers don’t seem rattled when they make mistakes, and they’ve shown an uncanny ability to work around them. San Francisco’s overcome injuries and a somewhat maligned quarterback to reach the NFC Conference championship against a team it’s already defeated twice this season. While the 49ers may have been a bit fortunate on the blocked punt in Green Bay, special teams still count for something in the game. Thus, when you’re well prepared in all three phases of the game, it’s possible to look a bit lucky on the surface.

Based on how I project this game to unfold, it’s hard to find too many situational spots to support the Rams winning this contest by more than a field goal. If anything, San Francisco’s six-game winning streak against  Los Angeles is almost enough to take the points blindly.

I’ll also be adding two more plays to my card as I’m backing the 49ers to go over their team total of 20.5 points. According to GimmeTheDog.com, dating back to the 2002 season, teams that won a playoff game by scoring 13 or fewer points scored at least 21 points in seven of the nine games in this spot. And if you exclude the Ravens, who were involved in three of the games, all six teams scored over 21 points the following week.

Lastly, I like Mitchell to go over 17.5 carries on Sunday. He’s eclipsed this mark in six of his past seven games as he fell just short with 17 carries in the Divisional Round against the Packers.

I’ll be risking a half-unit of my bankroll on each of my three plays.