Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars Betting Guide: Avalanche Could Come Crashing Down in Dallas

Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Avalanche -156|Stars +1330

Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+148)|Stars +1.5 (-184)

Total: 6.5 Over -110|Under -110

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars News, Analysis, and Picks

The Dallas Stars are bullying their way up the Central Division standings, winning seven of their past 10. They’ll face stiffer competition from the Colorado Avalanche, who haven’t lost in regulation in 2022, going 16-0-2 over their 18 contests in the new year. In doing so, the Avs have outlasted their metrics and are at risk of entering a correction phase heading into their next stretch.

Over their 18-game sample, the Avs have put up a 1.037 PDO, elevating their season-long average to 1.022, the fourth-highest in the league. The more concerning trend is that the Avs have been outplayed at five-on-five, seven times over that span, another indicator that their recent run is unsubstantiated with their advanced metrics. Things are coming unglued, as they’ve been out-possessed, out-shot, and out-chanced in scoring chances in two of their past four and out-chanced in high-danger opportunities in four straight. Those metrics aren’t expected to improve against a Stars team trending upward.

Solid underlying metrics support Dallas’ recent run. The Stars have been out-chanced in high-danger spots just twice over their past 10 outings, posting expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in seven of those. Still, the Stars season-long PDO remains below 1.000, supporting that further progression is on the horizon for the Stars.

This is the final home game of a six-game homestand for Dallas. The Stars have used that to their advantage, limiting four straight opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances and three of four to 21 or fewer scoring opportunities. We’re expecting that defensive structure to hold strong against the Avs and the Stars to come out on top in Dallas.

The Picks: Stars +130

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.