Consistency has been an issue for the New York Knicks this season. They’ll be looking to string together consecutive wins for the first time since January 10-15 when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night. The Grizzlies have played themselves into the Southwest Division lead, currently sitting third in the Western Conference. That’s earned the designation as favorites heading into tonight’s contest, but our projections imply that the advantage lies in backing the home team.
Grizzlies (35-18) vs. Knicks (24-27)
Date: Wednesday, February 1
Time: 7:30 P.m. ET
Madison Square Garden
TV Coverage: ESPN, MSG, BSSE
Moneyline: Grizzlies -148|Knicks +126
Spread: Grizzlies -3 (-110)|Knicks +3 (-110)
Total: 217 Over (-112)|Under (-108)
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Grizzlies +3000|Knicks +13000
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SG Betting Model Win Probability: Grizzlies 42.96%|Knicks 57.04%
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Knicks – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: Knicks – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: No Rating
One of the keys to beating the Grizzlies is limiting their three-point shooting, and the Knicks are coming off a shutdown performance. New York held the Sacramento Kings to 11-for-38 from beyond the arc last time out, the second straight game that they’ve held their opponents to below-average shooting from distance. The Knicks’ defense isn’t limited to their recent sample, as they’ve been one of the most effective units in the league. Julius Randle and company have limited opponents to 44.1% shooting from the field, fourth-best in the Association, earning the tenth-best defensive efficiency rating. The Knicks will have to lean into that to limit an efficient Grizzlies offense.
The good news for Knicks fans is that the Grizzlies are due for regression. Memphis has overachieved relative to their season-long metrics in four straight games. In total, the Grizz are averaging 117.8 points per game on 49.5% shooting, both of which are outside of normal ranges. Memphis has also been less effective as the visitors this season; their shooting percentage is 2.5% lower on the road, dragging their average points per game down with it. Memphis is due for a downturn in their metrics, and we’re betting that comes on the road.
Based on our projections, there’s a significant edge in backing the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. That edge exists on the moneyline and spread. Our algorithm gives the Knicks a 57.04% chance of winning, implying they should be favorites against the Grizz. Nevertheless, they are priced as +126 home underdogs, equaling +3 on the spread. Backing them on either wager are rated as 5-star plays.