Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

Miami is first in the Eastern Conference and is 16-14 on the road. They’re coming off a 104-86 win over the Charlotte Hornets behind a game-high 27 points from Jimmy Butler. He leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21.9 points to go with 6.3 assists and 6.3 rebounds. Tyler Herro is right behind him, averaging 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and four assists per game.

Meanwhile, the Wizards are 11th in the East and 13-13 at home. They’re coming off a 95-80 loss to the Phoenix Suns with Montrezl Harrell scoring a team-high 15 points off the bench. Bradley Beal leads Washington in scoring but has missed the past three games due to a wrist injury. Kyle Kuzma is second on the team in scoring with 16.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game.

Miami is 16th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 108.7 points per game, while the Wizards are 22nd with 106.9. The Heat are fifth in opponent scoring, allowing only 104.4 points per game, while Washington is 17th with 109.7. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 208.5, but the model thinks their combined points will be closer to 225.2.

Against the spread, the Heat are 31-23 and 17-13 on the road, while the Wizards are 20-31-1 and 12-14 at home. One trend to watch is Washington is 0-5 ATS in their past five games.

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Model likes Miami in this matchup. According to the model, the Heat have a 79.36 percent chance of winning, a fair moneyline of -385, and a 9.6 expected point margin of victory. Compare that to Fanduel Sportsbook, which has the Heat at -235 on the moneyline and -5.5 on the spread.

The model recommends Miami’s moneyline giving it a four-and-a-half-star rating. It also likes the spread as a four-star wager. The model predicts this game to exceed the total of 208.5 and recommends the over as a five-star bet.