UNLV and Nevada will face off as part of Tuesday’s packed Mountain West slate while the Runnin’ Rebels will look to complete their first season sweep of the Wolf Pack since 2013. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the odds and see where we can find value in this intrastate matchup.
Moneyline: UNLV +125 | Nevada -150
Spread: UNLV +2.5 (-106) | Nevada -2.5 (-114)
Total: 143.5 Over -114 | Under -106
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
A typical rule of thumb when dissecting a line in college basketball is to compare the number to what it would be on a neutral court. With teams typically seeing three additional points of favor when they are at home, that would leave this spread right around a pick ’em if this game took place at a neutral site. That feels hard to believe as the Rebels sit nearly 30 spots higher on KenPom than the Wolf Pack and were victorious by double-digits when the two met just three weeks ago. Although both teams are entering with small winning streaks, UNLV’s certainly carries more weight than that of Nevada’s.
A convincing road win over Utah State for Nevada to start their three-game win streak was impressive, but an ugly, scrappy win over league cellar-dweller San Jose State followed by a bigger blowout over the lowly Spartans yet again just two days following shouldn’t change much of how the Wolf Pack are viewed. As for the Rebels, a narrow six-point loss to Boise State has been followed by victories over both Fresno State and Colorado State, the latter being a 22-point blowout. UNLV’s best basketball seems to be ahead of them and Nevada hasn’t proven enough consistency or capability to be favored by this much, regardless of the venue.
The Pick: UNLV +2.5 (-106)
All NCAAM basketball game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.