NCAA Tournament Odds: History Says National Champion Comes From Small Group

The NCAA Tournament is billed as one of the most unpredictable sporting events every year, and it’s true — to a certain extent.

When you have 68 teams in a single-elimination tournament, you’re going to see plenty of upsets. But when it’s time to cut down the nets, it’s typically the big boys who are taking home the hardware.

The tournament begins Thursday, and a mad dash to the national championship on April 4 in New Orleans will ensue. As you head to the betting window or even fill out your bracket, though, consider the pre-tournament betting odds of each of the recent national champions.

2021: Baylor (+500)
2019: Virginia (+800)
2018: Villanova (+600)
2017: North Carolina (+600)
2016: Villanova (+2000)
2015: Duke (+900)
2014: UConn (+6600)

The 66-1 from UConn obviously stands out, but it doesn’t take a college basketball expert to recognize every team on this list is a college hoops blueblood or power. The betting odds reflect as much, and even that ‘Nova team in 2016 that won at 20-1 beat a top-ranked Carolina team on a legit buzzer-beater.

College Basketball Tournament Bracket

Mar 18, 2024

So, for the sake of this exercise, we’re just focusing on the top four teams in each region. Here are the odds to win the national title for the 16 top-seeded teams in the Big Dance.

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

WEST
1. Gonzaga (+300)
2. Duke (+1600)
3. Texas Tech (+2200)
4. Arkansas (+8000)

EAST
1. Baylor (+1200)
2. Kentucky (+800)
3. Purdue (+2000)
4. UCLA (+1800)

SOUTH
1. Arizona (+650)
2. Villanova (+1400)
3. Tennessee (+1400)
4. Illinois (+5000)

MIDWEST
1. Kansas (+850)
2. Auburn (+1200)
3. Wisconsin (+10000)
4. Providence (+25000)

So, if history is any indication, your best chance to either cash a ticket or win your bracket pool is to write Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Auburn or maybe Purdue and roll from there.