Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Game 2 Betting Model Preview

Dallas Mavericks (8-6) | Golden State Warriors (9-3)

Date: 05/20/2022 | Time: 09:00 PM

Location: San Francisco, California | Venue: Chase Center

Spread Open: Warriors -6 | Current: Warriors -6

Moneyline Open: Mavericks +215/ Warriors -260 | Current: Mavericks +215/ Warriors -260

Game Total Open: 215 | Current: 214

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Dallas Mavericks +1100

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors +100

The Warriors came out firing in Game 1 and ultimately were able to get the better of the Mavericks by 25 points, which shouldn’t be a surprise after what we’ve seen them do in series-opening matchups in these playoffs. Golden State shot an extremely efficient 56.1% from the floor in the victory, while limiting the Mavs to just 36%.

With the Warriors’ plethora of scoring options, it’s not going to be an easy series for Dallas if they don’t play the type of defense they displayed in the first two rounds, or find more secondary scoring, which wasn’t evident in Game 1. They might have to do both. This Mavs team was able to limit the Phoenix Suns in the second round, a deep offensive team in their own right, so it’s not like Dallas doesn’t have the capability to do that in this series. There’s a reason they got to this point and it’s not just because of Luka Doncic.

The SportsGrid betting model agrees with that assessment and is in favor of the Mavericks for Game 2 on the road, giving them a 63.65% win probability and a five-star rating on the moneyline. You can look at how the Warriors blew out Dallas in Game 1 and wonder why the spread isn’t higher, but that’s not uncommon in the NBA playoffs. The Warriors are currently favored by six and that’s a reasonable number for Dallas to keep this game close, which is also why the model gives the Mavericks a five-star rating on the spread.

The moneyline is also paying out some great value at +215 if you believe the Mavs can pull off the Game 2 victory, which is a very nice price point. Dallas has been good at bouncing back in the playoffs and you should expect them to continue that trend here tonight in Game 2.

The total for tonight opened at 215 and has since fallen to 214, with the model still giving over a five-star rating in this spot tonight. Game 1 saw just 199 points scored, but the Mavs put forth a dismal shooting effort, and if you expect them to get back to their normal efficiency, there’s no reason this game can’t go over the number.

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Dallas Mavericks (63.65%) vs Golden State Warriors (36.35%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: DAL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: DAL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars