MLB DFS: Yankees, Dodgers Top Optimal Stacks for Monday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Yankees, Dodgers

The New York Yankees sit atop the optimal board as they will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in a likely bullpen game, with Ryan Yarbrough serving as the primary pitcher. The Yankees are amidst their longest slump of the year, where they have lost nine of their past 11 games. They have only scored 17 runs over the past week, which has resulted in them having a bottom four wOBA and wRC+ ranking and a bottom eight ISO ranking. We know the Yankees are too talented for this slump last much longer, as they are now 2.5 games back of the Houston Astros for the AL throne. 

Yarbrough is projected to be the primary pitcher for the Rays tonight, as he’ll probably eat up four-to-five innings comfortably. His expected ERA and FIP are around 5.00, and he doesn’t strike out many, given his 16.1% strikeout rate. This is the kind of opponent that the Yankees need to break their slump, so those sluggers are probably licking their chops heading into tonight. This stack is priced reasonably at an average of $4,700 on DraftKings but is seeing lower ownership given the recent slump, which opens a small leverage window. Banking on the upside of the Yankees in a leverage situation against a mediocre pitcher is something that we would be salivating over just two weeks ago, so taking it now is a strong play.

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ team stack joins the Yankees near the top of the leverage board ahead of their matchup against Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Dodgers have sported one of baseball’s best offenses all season and have been the best during August, ranking first in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They have also scored the most runs with the best Barrel% during that same stretch. 

Peralta is making his third start since returning from injury and was on a pitch count of 65-70 over his past two starts. It is unclear if that will be different or if that will be increased for tonight, but hypothetically it probably would only be to 75-80 pitches, giving him about five innings on the mound. He has pitched better than his actual numbers suggest, as his expected ERA and FIP drop down to nearly 3.00 with strong strikeout production at a near 29%. The Dodgers’ team stack also is in a small leverage window while being the most expensive stack on the slate. Peralta is no pushover, and neither is the bullpen which could see more work than usual due to Peralta’s pitch count. Still, the Dodgers have been too good lately, so it is hard to fade them in any scenario.