NFL Week 2 Picks: Packers Poised To Bounce Back; Bills In Letdown Spot?
Perhaps you've heard: It's overreaction week
Sometimes, visually impaired squirrels stumble across a couple of acorns, as was the case in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season for NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle.
The duo got off to an impressive collective start, each going 10-6 against the spread with their picks. On “The Spread,” NESN’s weekly football picks podcast, Ricky hit on all three of his best bets and is plus-6 units for the year, while Mike hit on two of three to go plus-3 to start the season. All that likely means it’s all downhill from here, of course.
But they are onto Week 2, where overreactions abound, and line adjustments are as far as the eye can see. One week after the highest spread of any game was seven points, we’ve got five Week 2 showdowns with spreads of 10 points or more. These waters will be tricky to navigate.
Before we get into the Week 2 picks, here’s a fancy graphic celebrating Mike and Ricky’s Week 1 performance.
Now, onto the Week 2 picks, with betting lines taken from the “consensus” column on the NESNBets live odds page.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 15
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Los Angeles Chargers at (-3.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Chiefs. KC took advantage of a banged-up Cardinals team last week. This week, they get a Chargers team without Keenan Allen and JC Jackson being a game-time decision. The Chiefs should be flying high after a very impressive Week 1 showing, too.
Ricky: Chargers. The aforementioned Chargers injuries are concerning, but they’re baked into the line, which has moved past a key number. The opportunity to catch more than a field goal with Justin Herbert and company is too good to pass up, even in Kansas City, as these AFC West rivals feel evenly matched.
SUNDAY, SEPT. 18
Miami Dolphins at (-3.5) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. Baltimore has all kinds of injury issues, especially at cornerback and offensive line, two areas in which Miami can — and should — target. A couple of game-changing plays from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle keep it close.
Ricky: Dolphins. Miami held Lamar Jackson to just 39 rushing yards last November — his third-lowest total of the season — and a similar effort will go a long way toward the Dolphins pulling off an outright upset.
New York Jets at (-6) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. Was about to take Cleveland as one of my bets on “The Spread” and then I saw this highlight and this one right before recording and got spooked by laying a touchdown with Jacoby Brissett. If I have to make a pick, though, I’ll take the Browns and just expect their pass rush annihilates a broken Jets offensive line.
Ricky: Browns. Prefer to play the under(40), with each team facing a less-than-ideal quarterback situation. Pick-wise, it’s a little trickier, but Cleveland still feels like a safe bet to rattle Joe Flacco’s cage a few times.
Washington Commanders at (-1.5) Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. Flip-flopped a bunch on this one. My original thought was I can’t back Jared Goff as a favorite, but if he weren’t, that would mean Carson Wentz was the favorite. So, QB aside, the Lions (I think?) have the better roster. Not watching this game regardless, though.
Ricky: Commanders. It’s Week 2 and we’re already on D’Andre Swift injury watch. Not that I’m a nervous fantasy football owner or anything.
(-4) Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Jags should have won last week, showing flashes of the improved team they should be. But I choose to believe the fourth-quarter Colts are the closest thing to what they’ll be this season, and that team probably should be favored by a touchdown here.
Ricky: Colts. Indianapolis put up 517 yards of offense in its Week 1 tie. The problem? Indy also went 2-for-5 in the red zone and turned the ball over twice. Banking on some positive regression, with Jonathan Taylor running wild and the Colts’ defense manhandling the Jaguars’ offensive line.
(-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints. The line is probably going to settle below a field goal by gametime, but we can only play the hands we’re dealt when they’re dealt. New Orleans’ offense has the talent to keep pace in a shootout, but its defense might be the difference-maker, especially up front against a battered Bucs offensive line.
Ricky: Saints. The Bucs’ season-opening win over the Cowboys said more about Dallas than Tampa Bay. Something still feels off about the Bucs, and they’ll be tested this week in a hostile environment against a divisional opponent who’s had their number during the regular season in recent years.
Carolina Panthers at (-2.5) New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Daniel Jones in Week 1 showed the sort of decision-making that leads you to believe they could always blow a cover, and the Panthers at least have the explosive potential to score a game-changing touchdown out of nowhere. So, I’ll take the points.
Ricky: Panthers. The Giants have been the NFL’s worst home bet since 2017, going 12-27-1 ATS (30.8% cover rate). And it took some unsustainable fortune for them to pull off an upset last week against the Titans. Now I’m expected to lay points? No thanks.
(-1.5) New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. That I’m willing to take Mitch Trubisky against Bill Belichick in a borderline pick ’em is maybe the strongest condemnation of the Patriots offense you’ll find.
Ricky: Steelers. This isn’t your typical Patriots bounce-back spot. For one, they’re just not that good anymore. And also, the Steelers typically play very well as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, with their Week 1 overtime win over the Bengals being the latest example.
Atlanta Falcons at (-10.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Might be an overreaction on my part, but I guess I still need to see it first with the Rams. The Falcons were able to get some pressure last week, while Matthew Stafford was sacked seven times and pressured on a third of his dropbacks.
Ricky: Rams. The Falcons feel like they’ll be a plucky underdog this season. And the Rams have some issues that’ll probably derail their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions. But Los Angeles’ offense versus Atlanta’s defense is a mismatch Sean McVay can exploit.
Seattle Seahawks at (-10) San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. San Fran, a trendy Super Bowl pick, lost in Week 1. The Seahawks, a trendy No. 1 pick selection, won. Reverse those Week 1 outcomes, and I think this is closer to 13 points. Also gotta believe the Seahawks fired their best rounds in their Super Bowl last week, and they still should have lost were it not for two (!) Broncos goal-line fumbles.
Ricky: Seahawks. Still need to see more from Trey Lance before laying a double-digit point total in a divisional matchup.
(-7.5) Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The Cincinnati offensive line still has some glaring question marks, and let’s not forget Cooper Rush won and played pretty well in what basically was an emergency start last season at Minnesota.
Ricky: Bengals. This is a lot of points to lay on the road. But I was down on the Cowboys before Dak Prescott’s injury. Now, their offense conceivably could be among the NFL’s worst, whereas the Bengals just need to take better care of the football this week to get into the win column.
Houston Texans at (-10) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. Still not sure how Houston was able to hang with the Colts in a game where Indy gained 5.7 yards per play. Denver went into a tough spot last week, but it’s a far more favorable setting this week in Russell Wilson’s home opener where they should look like the team many expected entering the season.
Ricky: Broncos. The Broncos were victimized by turnovers in Week 1, whereas the Texans benefitted from the Colts being careless with the football. Assuming water finds its level in Week 2, the Broncos should have no problem rolling in their home opener.
Arizona Cardinals at (-5.5) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. Really wanted to take the Cardinals in this spot as everyone’s down on them after the Week 1 debacle. But the injury situation doesn’t look much better with the trio of J.J. Watt, Justin Pugh and Rondale Moore still very questionable.
Ricky: Cardinals. Arizona has won each of its last six road games outright as an underdog and is 17-7-1 ATS on the road under Kliff Kingsbury. Not sure the Cardinals have the horses to pull off an upset in Vegas, but they can’t be as bad as they were against the Chiefs in Week 1. They just can’t.
Chicago Bears at (-10) Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Packers. The ultimate get-right spot for a Packers team riding a six-game win streak against Chicago, winning by an average of 12.5 points. The Packers’ defense is legit and will look much better against a Bears team that won’t see the opponent neutralized by a biblical rainstorm.
Ricky: Packers. When the dust settles later this season, the Packers might be the best team in the NFC and the Bears might be the worst. As such, we’ll all look back on Week 1 with a chuckle.
MONDAY, SEPT. 19
Tennessee Titans at (-10) Buffalo Bills, 7:15 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Ten points just feels like a lot, man. The Bills struggled last season when teams could bully them at the line, which happened in games against teams like the Colts, Patriots and, oh, the Titans. A heavy dose of Derrick Henry keeps it close.
Ricky: Bills. Everyone is salivating over the Bills. Understandably so. And as much as I want to fade them here, I just can’t. The Titans might be bad this season.
Minnesota Vikings at (-2.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. I’ve got questions about the Vikings’ run defense after Green Bay averaged 6.2 yards per carry in Week 1. Assuming Philly doesn’t fall behind, I think their impressive run game can dictate the pace here in a potential playoff preview.
Ricky: Vikings. You know the deal about Kirk Cousins in primetime: He’s not very good. Something feels different about this Vikings team, though, and it starts with first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell, who is well equipped to maximize the potential of Minnesota’s weapons.
