Game 2 Guardians-Yankees: Can Bieber Provide a Spark?

The Cleveland Guardians will throw their ace, Shane Bieber, Friday afternoon in hopes of evening up the series 1-1 with the New York Yankees before heading back home for Game 3. The Guardians failed to capitalize on opportunities (out-hit New York) in Game 1, a 4-1 loss. 

Nestor Cortes will take the ball as one of New York’s more dependable pitchers. He can virtually end Cleveland’s hopes of moving on to the ALCS. Series odds have swayed to New York’s advantage, with the Yankees at -420 and Guardians at +330 on the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

• Location: Yankees Stadium | Bronx, NY
• Time: 1:08 p.m. ET | TV: TBS

For this pivotal game, Bieber is exactly who Terry Francona wants on the mound. He’s one of the best pitchers on the planet when he is rolling, which we saw in the Wild Card Series, where he only allowed one run in 7.2 innings pitched with eight strikeouts.

Down the stretch, he has a 2.10 ERA over his last 11 starts, with six innings a reasonable expectation for Game 2. On the season, his strikeout production hasn’t been where the Guardians would like it to be, but we know what his ceiling can be. 

Cortes is coming in fresh and with an abundance of confidence, as he has an ERA of 1.35 over his last six starts with a strikeout rate of 26.5% on the season. Pretty dominant stuff. He faced Cleveland twice in 2022 and allowed three earned runs with 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings. 

• Moneyline: Guardians (+124) | Yankees (-146)
• Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Yankees -1.5 (+152)
• Total: Over 6 runs (-122) | Under 6 runs (+100)

In a similar situation to what we saw with Yu Darvish and the underdog Padres last night, Bieber is Cleveland’s best option to even up the series. With their backs against the wall, that’s plus value with the Guardians that is worth taking a swing. 

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• Anthony Rizzo to hit a HR (+390)
• Cortes over 4.5 strikeouts (+106) | Cortes 6+ strikeouts (+240)
• Bieber 6+ strikeouts + Under 6 runs + Cleveland to win (+531)

In two previous appearances against Cleveland, Cortes averaged seven strikeouts per outing. With a potentially messy game ahead for both hitters and pitchers, this is a logical play with clear value.

Anthony Rizzo knocked 22 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season and already hit one in Game 1. As good as he’s been, Bieber allowed seven home runs in September. At +390, this is the favorite play for either lineup.

The Guardians have little chance of winning a slugfest with the Yankees. They’ll need a dominant performance from Bieber of at least 6-7 innings to have a real chance of evening the series, so combining a Cleveland W with 6+ strikeouts for Bieber and the under makes for a correlated parlay.