NFL Survivor League Week 7 Picks: Consider Patriots Despite QB Uncertainty

We’re starting to run out of words faster than NFL survivor leagues are running out of players.

If it feels like the 2022 NFL season has been more wild than prior years, it’s because it has. And Week 6 provided the most telling example.

Three of the four most popular survivor league picks — Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers — all lost as considerable betting favorites. The Buccaneers (-10) and Packers (-7.5) had two of the largest point spreads on the board with only the Los Angeles Rams (-10) having a spread of a touchdown or larger. If you still had the Rams and used them against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6, chances are you’re in a very favorable spot moving forward.

This graph from Circa Sports, which runs a well-known survivor league contest, speaks volumes as it compares the number of eliminations through six weeks to that of years past.

Despite that incredibly depressing graph, we’re going to run it back.

Here are three teams NFL survivor league players should pick and three others to avoid in Week 7 with lines based on consensus data from the NESNBets live odds page.

Teams to pick:
(-13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (moneyline -746)
The Buccaneers have not looked good through the first six weeks, with Tampa Bay’s worst loss of the season coming last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The defense allowed Mitchell Trubisky to put the game on ice with two head-scratching conversions on fourth-and-long. Still, there’s no way Tom Brady and the Buccaneers come out and lay an egg against the woeful Panthers, who might be looking to Sam Darnold in his first start of the season. We know we said Tampa Bay might be the safest pick last week, but it really feels like that could be the case in this spot.

(-8) New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears (-370)
Bill Belichick might not be willing to say who will be starting for the Patriots on “Monday Night Football” until 90 minutes before a game, the last game on the Week 7 slate. It might cause some anxiety among survivor league players, but we’re of the belief New England is going to win in this spot no matter who is behind center. The Bears have an offense that sets offensive football back decades, and the Patriots have proven they can stop good running games. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots cover the spread here.

(-7) Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans (-308)
Despite the point spread being one of the largest on the betting board, the 1-4 Raiders probably still are a bit of a contrarian pick. But for those looking to be contrarian, especially given that the Week 7 has taken some of the best teams out of contention, Las Vegas playing at home against the 1-3-1 Texans is a bit enticing. Josh McDaniels and company are coming off a bye week after having lost all four of their games by six points or less, two of those by two points or fewer. The Raiders can’t be that bad, right?

Teams to avoid:
(-4.5) Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders (-223)
The Packers cannot be trusted right now. They were just boat raced by the New York Jets, after all. On the other hand, Washington actually might be better with second-stringer Taylor Heinicke replacing quarterback Carson Wentz, who will be out some time after having surgery on his finger.

(-3) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants (-164)
The Giants might be not be deserving of their 5-1 record given they’ve compiled three wins over the Panthers, Bears and lowly Packers, but nevertheless we’re not going to pick a middle-of-the-road Jaguars team over Brian Daboll and company. Jacksonville, after all, just got beat by Houston two weeks prior.

(-6.5) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons (-299)
Arthur Smith has the Marcus Mariota-led offense ranking as the best rushing attack in the league by DVOA. Atlanta has compiled the second-most rushing attempts and third-most yards in the league while the Bengals have not been good on the ground or stopping the run this season. Feels like too much of a toss up.