NFL Week 8 Picks: Making Sense Of Jaguars; Vikings Overrated?

The weekly NFL picks are back. Week 8 is here, and with it, comes Halloween.

The 2022 NFL season has been, in some ways, a lot like a Halloween candy bag. Sure, you’ll get a couple of full-sized candy bars from the rich folks down the street (Bills, Chiefs, Eagles). But you’ll also have to suffer through an apple or two (Lions, Texans). And if you’re not careful, you might find a razor blade in the middle of a candy bar that looks good on the outside but is incredibly dangerous (looking at you, Bucs and Packers).

But, largely, the bag is filled with small, bite-sized pieces of assorted candy that, depending on your mood, can give you that oh-so-glorious blast of sweetness, albeit at the detriment of your health if you overconsume.

As for Week 8 itself, kudos to the NFL for giving us Browns at Bengals on Halloween Night, the only night on which a palette of orange, black and brown can be aesthetically pleasing.

Of course, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle discussed that and much more on this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast. The duo has been on a roll the last two weeks, hitting on 10 of their 12 picks. Listen to this week’s episode below as you dive into all their Week 8 picks.

Before the full slate, here’s how they fared last week.

Now, here are their Week 8 picks (against the spread) using consensus betting lines found at the NFL live odds page at NESNBets.com.

THURSDAY, OCT. 27

Baltimore Ravens at (-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Bucs. No team has forced more turnovers than the Ravens, and it’s a big reason they have the fifth-best net field position this season. The Bucs, for all their issues, don’t really turn it over, so it will be more of a struggle for that Baltimore offense. Tom Brady should be able to lead some sustained drives and ultimately take advantage of Baltimore’s 26th-ranked red-zone defense.
Ricky: Bucs. Tampa Bay’s ability to dial up pressure against Lamar Jackson will be the difference, especially given the injury to his safety blanket, Mark Andrews. The Bucs are dealing with injuries in their secondary, but the speed of their linebackers should help neutralize Jackson’s running prowess.

SUNDAY, OCT. 30

Denver Broncos vs. (-2.5) Jacksonville Jaguars, 9:30 a.m. in London
Mike: Broncos. At a certain point, I’ve gotta look at the fact that despite the Jags’ enticing advanced analytics, it does take a little more than EPA or DVOA to win professional football games. And yes, Russell Wilson stinks this year, but he’s better than Brett Rypien. If Wilson is back, getting the points here feels like the play.
Ricky: Broncos. One thing we can say definitively about this matchup of mysteries: Denver’s defense is among the NFL’s best, ranking first in success rate and second in EPA/play. That should travel overseas, with only four teams creating more QB pressure than the Broncos and Trevor Lawrence having a knack for turning the ball over in key spots.

Carolina Panthers at (-4) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Carolina is really stout against the run, so that should force the Falcons to throw the ball, where they’ve been a top-10 offense by EPA this season. And the major defensive issues we saw last week for Atlanta — leaky secondary, no pass rush — don’t seem as fatal against an offense like the Panthers.
Ricky: Falcons. This is a classic case of finding value by backing a team coming off a blowout loss versus a team coming off a blowout win. According to Action Network, teams that just won by 17+ points (Panthers) facing an opponent that just lost by 17+ points (Falcons) are 64-102-4 ATS all time (a 39% cover rate). When you consider Atlanta is more talented, at home and has an excellent overall ATS record (6-1) this season, it’s a no-brainer.

Chicago Bears at (-9.5) Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. Perception about the Bears has never been this high. But they had the advantage of a mini-bye to prep for the Patriots, and to their credit, they took full advantage. Now, they’re tasked with trying to solve arguably the NFL’s top defense on a short week. Only Matt Ryan has more turnover-worthy passes under pressure this season, and the Cowboys lead the league in pressure percentage.
Ricky: Cowboys. An obvious letdown spot for Chicago after last week’s shocking win in New England. Plus, this is a good opportunity for Dallas’ offense to start building momentum in Dak Prescott’s second game back behind center.

(-3.5) Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. My perception of Miami is probably overstated because of what they did against Baltimore way back in Week 2. That being said, the Lions’ defense is even worse than that Ravens unit (and this game is indoors), so I think this is a game in which the Dolphins offense explodes to run away with it.
Ricky: Dolphins. The Lions’ early-season offensive onslaught is looking like more of a fluke with each passing week. Granted, they’ve been dealing with injuries to their two best playmakers (D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown) and likely will benefit from having them in Week 8, but Detroit is simply too reliant on splash plays.

Arizona Cardinals at (-3.5) Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. The best win on Minnesota’s schedule so far is at Miami — where they beat Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater. They’re about to get some real tests, starting this week with a Cardinals team that should be able to hang with them.
Ricky: Vikings. Is Minnesota as good as its 5-1 record? Probably not. But Arizona’s slow starts make for an uphill battle, and the conversation surrounding the Cardinals would’ve been much different this week if not for a couple of pick-sixes late in the first half against the Saints.

(-2) Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. Sounds like injuries will be an issue for the Saints, once again, especially Marshon Lattimore. The Saints cornerback might be one of the NFL’s most valuable defenders. In the five games he played, New Orleans had the NFL’s 10th-best defense by EPA. In two weeks without him? No. 30.
Ricky: Saints. New Orleans’ defense has been worse than expected, but don’t sleep on the offense, which ranks fifth in yards per play. The Saints’ problem has been taking care of the football, and that should course-correct against a Raiders defense that ranks second-to-last in dropback EPA and takeaways per game.

(-1.5) New England Patriots at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. Love under 40.5 here, and forced to pick a side, I’ll take the Patriots because I don’t see where the Jets offense comes from. Breece Hall was averaging 6 yards per touch and a big play every six touches, but he’s down for the season, and tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker is also done for the year. If the Patriots take advantage, it could be a nightmare for Zach Wilson whose passer rating is 12.7 under pressure, a nearly 100-point difference from when he’s clean.
Ricky: Patriots. The Jets totaled just 260 yards of offense last week against the Broncos — and 99 of those yards (38%) came on two plays, one being a 67-yard run by the now-sidelined Hall. New England’s defense isn’t on the level of Denver’s, but Bill Belichick and company should be able to cook up something to fluster Wilson and cover the short number.

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-10.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. The Steelers are a feisty bunch, but this is a tough ask coming off a physical Sunday night game in Miami. The Eagles’ defense should stifle in a way the Bills swallowed up the Steelers en route to a 38-3 win earlier this month. It won’t be quite that bad, but it could get off the rails a bit.
Ricky: Eagles. Gotta hand it to Mike Tomlin: The Steelers play hard and it’s never comfortable laying a large chunk of points against them. But these two teams are in different weight classes. Philly rolls at home.

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(-2) Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Given how the line has moved, it seems there’s not a ton of optimism Ryan Tannehill plays after suffering an ankle injury. Malik Willis might be good. I certainly have no clue, but I’ll grab the points and just assume he struggles while making his first career start on the road and in the division opposite a veteran head coach.
Ricky: Titans. Tennessee’s QB uncertainty is unsettling, no doubt. But only two teams — the Eagles and Seahawks — have averaged more first-half points per game than the Titans this season. Have faith in Tennessee’s early game plan and ability to lean on Derrick Henry late in the contest.

Washington Commanders at (-3) Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Washington has played above its advanced numbers this season, with last week being a perfect example of that: Not only were they aided by the Packers’ offensive ineptitude, but Taylor Heinecke threw turnover-worthy passes on five of his 35 dropbacks. The Colts’ defense is better than Green Bay’s, and they’re at home here. It’s a soft spot for the Sam Ehlinger show to get off the ground.
Ricky: Commanders. I don’t know what the heck to expect from Ehlinger. And you don’t, either. Take the points and see what happens, because the Commanders, if nothing else, have shown they can be a pain in the neck.

(-1.5) San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams. The good news for the 49ers is the bye week is coming up, giving them a chance to reset and get a little healthier. That doesn’t do them a ton of good this week, though. Even without an obvious home-field advantage, give me the points at home with LA.
Ricky: Rams. Amid all of San Franisco’s injuries, the loss of fullback Kyle Juszczyk feels underrated given his unique role in the 49ers’ offense. Los Angeles’ offense has had its problems, but the Rams’ defense — excellent against the run — has an opportunity to flex its muscle this week.

New York Giants at (-3) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Daniel Jones has passed for more than 200 yards just once. Saquon Barkley has rushed for more than 100 yards just three times. I don’t get the Giants at all. Their run defense is legitimately bad, though, and Kenneth Walker III looks like the real deal, so New York finally starts its descent back to earth this week.
Ricky: Seahawks. I’ve been swinging and missing on these two teams all season. So, I’ll just take Seattle and head for the exit. The Seahawks’ success to this point feels more sustainable than the Giants’ weekly high-wire act.

Green Bay Packers at (-11) Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Bills. The Packers don’t do anything especially well. They have issues on both sides of the ball. The Bills are elite in just about every facet. I’ve seen absolutely nothing from the Packers this year that makes me believe they can keep this close.
Ricky: Packers. Buffalo’s stock can’t get much higher, whereas Green Bay’s stock can’t get much lower. That alone makes for a decent betting opportunity. The Bills are excellent, but they’re not infallible, and the Packers’ pass defense is good enough to hang around.

MONDAY, OCT. 31

(-3) Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. Real tough pick in a game that could be decided early. The Browns should be able to run on the Bengals, assuming they don’t fall behind early like Atlanta last week. Ultimately, however, I think the Bengals — averaging 6.6 yards per play the last three weeks — get another hot start against a bad Cleveland defense that puts Jacoby Brissett in an unwinnable position of having to chase points all night.
Ricky: Bengals. Not sure the market has caught up to Cincinnati’s resurgence yet based on this line. The Browns aren’t all that different than the Falcons (whom the Bengals just picked apart), in that Cleveland simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace if the game script doesn’t go exactly according to plan.